Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 12

Avoid Matt Forte as a Heavy Underdog

Veteran running back Matt Forte has had one heck of a career and is still doing relatively well in 2016. However, he has not done well in games where the New York Jets have lost by 10 or more points.

Heath Cummings of CBS Sports notes that Forte has done poorly in the four games where the Jets lost by 10 or more points. In those four games, Forte averaged just 5.6 half-PPR (point per reception) points per game. The reason this is significant is that the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs to the New England Patriots.

Another unfavorable trend for Forte is that his teammate Bilal Powell actually averaged 8.22 half-PPR points per game in those same four losses. When the Jets are losing, they tend to rely on Powell in the passing game instead of Forte.

The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread since Tom Brady returned in Week 5, so they will likely be leading the Jets for most of this game.

He is priced at $6,800, the 14th-highest price among running backs on FanDuel. At that price, he is an unnecessary risk in all formats.