How Well Did High-Ownership Players Perform for Daily Fantasy Football in 2016?
Kickers
I know y'all are excited for this. Just remember: kickers had the lowest bust rate of any position. And to think that some people want to get rid of them.
Here's the breakdown for bust rates among kickers. It's worth noting that only five kickers were underdogs in this sample, so we'll want to take that split with a heaping grain of salt.
| Bust Rates by Classification | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Home | 42.86% |
| Road | 37.50% |
| Favored | 43.48% |
| Underdogs | 20.00% |
| Over/Under of 47 or Higher | 39.29% |
| Over/Under Below 47 | 43.48% |
| Implied Team Total of 26 or Higher | 48.00% |
| Implied Team Total Below 26 | 34.62% |
| Salary of $4,800 or Higher | 41.67% |
| Salary Below $4,800 | 40.74% |
Just like with defenses, we find a bit of surprise in the split between home and road assets.
In last year's breakdown of how kickers perform based on Vegas, we saw that selecting a kicker who was a heavy favorite was conducive to fantasy goodness. However, teams are less likely to be favored when they're on the road, thus leading to the belief that home kickers would be safer. The bust rate among chalky road kickers this year really wasn't bad, and it makes for some interesting decisions going forward.
Speaking of Vegas, let's get a more even look by breaking these kickers into two separate groups: those favored by four or more, and those either favored by less or underdogs. This gives us 26 players in the first split and 25 in the second, and we can see a bit of actionable info here.
| Spread | Average Score | Average Value | Bust Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favored by 4 or More | 9.62 | 2.02 | 38.46% |
| Underdogs or Slight Favorites | 7.6 | 1.56 | 44.00% |
More points, more value, and a lower bust rate. Chalky kickers are largely okay in general, and they become even sweeter when favored by at least four points.
Conversely, Vegas was a bit disappointing when it came to implied team totals. You would assume that kickers would benefit when the team is expected to score more points (and on the whole, they do), but it didn't translate into lower bust rates. We don't need to avoid a kicker due to a high implied team total, but we also shouldn't have any extra faith in a chalky kicker simply because his team is expected to put up points.
Of all of the positions on the board, kicker seems to be the one where you can best trust your process and pick the player you like most. It's not like defenses or tight ends where you actively want to avoid the chalk, and kickers had lower bust rates than any other position. There's too much volatility in DFS to pass up the chance at some certainty, and kickers seem to provide that to an extent.
