Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Positional ADP: TE9 | Projected Finish: TE14
Tight end Hunter Henry finished as a top-12 TE in standard formats last year. Drafters are expecting more of the same, taking him ninth in recent drafts, but he's likely to disappoint his owners.
Let's compare Henry to his veteran teammate Antonio Gates.
| Player | Targets | Reception NEP/Target | Rec NEP/Tar Pos Avg | Reception Success Rate | Total NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 53 | 0.93 | 0.62 | 88.9% | 49.3 |
| Antonio Gates | 93 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 92.5% | 60.9 |
Check the targets column. Gates got almost twice as many as Henry. Even though Henry had a good season, he literally didn't take any work away from Gates. Over the five seasons from 2011 to 2015, Gates averaged exactly 93 targets per year. Henry's targets were likely due to injuries at wide receiver. That's not a problem (so far) this year, as Keenan Allen is back.
Henry was more efficient than Gates on a Reception NEP per Target basis, but notice that Gates himself was still above average. Henry also benefited when Gates missed time. In the three games Henry played but Gates did not, Henry averaged about 2.5 more standard points. If Gates stays healthy, that's a problem for Henry.
Henry's extreme efficiency is also a red flag. For TE seasons with more than 40 targets, Henry's 0.93 Reception NEP per Target is the 17th-best out of 553 such seasons since 2000. The question we have to ask is whether we believe that Henry is going to be able to sustain that elite efficiency, or if we think it will come back to earth. That matters, because Henry's target ceiling is capped as long as Gates and Allen remain healthy and effective.
Personally, I expect Henry's efficiency to decline, so I think he's a risky pick at this ADP.
Instead Try
Kyle Rudolph is available later, and we project him to finish as the TE 8. Unlike Henry, Rudolph has little to no target competition. The Minnesota Vikings have no other TEs of note, and Rudolph even out-targeted Stefon Diggs last year.
