Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Positional ADP: WR41 | Projected Finish: WR47
Since Michael Floyd left via free agency, John Brown has a become a popular sleeper. His health issues are reportedly under control, and he's in line to be the team's WR2. So why am I fading?
As long as he's healthy, nothing should threaten Larry Fitzgerald's workload. Brown may also face competition from J.J. Nelson. Last year, the two were separated by just a pair of targets. Here's how they performed.
| Full Name | Targets | Reception NEP | Reception NEP/Target | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 74 | 53.2 | 0.72 | 91.2% |
| John Brown | 72 | 49.5 | 0.69 | 97.4% |
Nelson easily held his own against Brown (although Brown clearly wasn't 100 percent last season), and despite having a deeper average depth of target, Nelson even managed to catch a higher percentage of his targets.
Brown is probably a better overall player than Nelson, but I don't think we can just hand most of Nelson's targets to Brown, either. The Cardinals also brought in Chad Williams and get Jaron Brown back from injury. John Brown may be in the front of the line to be the number-two receiver in the desert, but there is, in fact, competition for targets.
The other variable is Carson Palmer. Now 37 years old, can he hold up physically? We project him to be just the QB19 for the season. Will that be enough production to support multiple fantasy-relevant wideouts when you take into account David Johnson's pass-catching prowess?
Instead Try
We project both Randall Cobb and Eric Decker to out-perform Brown. Anthony Amico explained why Cobb is undervalued earlier this offseason while Joe Redemann makes the case for Decker.
