Fantasy Football: The Downside for Each Top-20 Pick

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Downside: Positive Game Scripts

The Buccaneers started 3-5 last season, and through that point in time, Mike Evans was averaging a solid 12.63 targets per game. In those eight games, he finished outside the top-15 in weekly wide receiver scoring (PPR) just twice.

As most of you know, the Bucs ended the year 9-7. Meaning, there were many more positive game scripts for the offense down the stretch.

And that impacted Evans' bottom line. Tampa Bay's drop-back-to-run ratio fell from 1.52 to 1.20 when they became a winning team, and Evans' targets per contest fell from the 12.63 that was just noted to 8.43. He went from averaging 22.44 PPR points per game to 15.30 when the Bucs became a winning team.

If that keeps up -- alongside the addition of DeSean Jackson, which could take volume away -- Evans could be more of a lower-end WR1 than the high-end one folks are drafting him as.