PGA Betting Guide for the AT&T Byron Nelson
We're one week away from the PGA Championship, but the AT&T Byron Nelson, with a weak field, could offer up some value over at Golf odds.
If you want to brush up on the course basics for Trinity Forest Golf Club, host of the AT&T Byron Nelson for just the second year, check out Mike Rodden's course primer and the Heat Check podcast.
Let's dig into the field and see what stands out. (All stats come from FantasyNational.com and cover the past 100 rounds on the PGA Tour, unless otherwise noted.)
Picks to Consider
At the Top
Brooks Koepka (FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: 7/1) - Look, the odds are short, but over the past 100 rounds, Koepka ranks third in the field in strokes gained: off the tee and is first on par fives in that split, according to FantasyNational.com. The approach play isn't great, but Koepka can unload on a course like this. Backing Brooks is easy to justify, though you'll need to spread out the rest of your card to make up for it.
Hideki Matsuyama (13/1) - Matsuyama grades out second in the field in approach over the past 100 rounds and is fourth in proximity from 200-plus yards, a key stat for me this week. He did play this event last year, finishing 16th, but he actually didn't gain any strokes tee to green and instead relied on the putter, which is very abnormal for Matsuyama. With a weak field, Matsuyama could finally net his first win since 2017.
Henrik Stenson (29/1) - Stenson's odds have actually dropped from 24/1 to 29/1 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Like Matsuyama, he is winless since the start of 2018, last winning the 2017 Wyndham Championship. Stenson, though, leads the field in strokes gained: approach and strokes gained on par 4s from 400 to 450 yards and is second in proximity from 200-plus yards. Starting your card with Stenson lets you load up on more options.
Mid-Range
Rafael Cabrera-Bello (44/1) - RCB isn't someone I'm relying on too heavily on FanDuel because of his salary, but I like the win equity at his price on FanDuel Sportsbook. He grades out 17th in approach and 28th off the tee, as well as 13th on par 4s from 400 to 450 yards and on overall par 5s. He should be able to score well enough to contend in this field, and we're getting the fifth-ranked golfer in the field (via Official World Golf Rankings) at a pretty nice discount. Just know that he has only one win since 2013 and none since 2017.
Ryan Moore (48/1) - Moore's win odds are quite low for someone who ranks 3rd in approach and 11th in off-the-tee play. His best finish in 2019 came two events ago at the Valero Texas Open, and he's back in Texas again for the Byron Nelson. His steady approach play over the past six events should help him net greens in regulation on the massive Bermuda greens, and that's a key piece to the puzzle this week.
Scott Piercy (48/1) - Piercy played here last year, finishing 32nd. In that outing, he lost 2.5 strokes putting and actually struggles on Bermuda overall. What Piercy does well is strike the ball, and that matters a lot at Trinity Forest, based on last year's data (the only event we can really use). Piercy is 4th in strokes gained: approach and 22nd in strokes gained: off the tee in our sample.
Trey Mullinax (75/1) - Mullinax definitely struggles around the green (133rd), but with large greens and lots of bunkers, if you're relying on around-the-green performance, you're probably not scoring well enough to contend at this course. That can all change if the weather hits hard, of course. Mullinax has been a mostly neutral putter on Bermuda over his past 100 rounds (-0.053 strokes, on average). He's definitely a high-variance play, and that's what we need for a win pick. Mullinax ranks fifth in both strokes gained: off the tee and par 5 scoring, so he is in play as a value bet in a watered-down field.
Longshots
Russell Henley (160/1) - Henley is 13th in approach but 116th around the greens. Similar to the thinking with Mullinax: if you're not putting it close or if you're missing the large greens in regulation, you're probably not winning anyway. Henley ranks 34th in the field in par 4 scoring from 400 to 450 yards and is 28th in proximity from 200-plus yards. If the approach play stats carry over, Henley could be in the mix on Sunday.
Hank Lebioda (280/1) - Lebioda grades out top-40 in both of the key ball-striking stats over the past 100 rounds and is 20th in the field in par 5 scoring. He's a horrible putter so far in his PGA Tour career, but his ball-striking ability could carry him to a solid finish. He's +940 for a top-20, as well.
Nate Lashley (430/1) - Lashley is probably a better top-20 bet at +900, but it won't take a heavy bet at +43000 to hit it big. Lashley grades out 29th in strokes gained: approach and strokes gained on par 5s and leads the field in proximity from 200-plus yards over the past 100 rounds. His 46 rounds of putting on Bermuda have been positive so far (+0.270).
