PGA Betting Guide for A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below we will cover the best bets for A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier based on current form, course fit, and, of course, the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The fall swing kicks off at a familiar venue in a new spot on the calendar. This event has existed in one form or another since 2010, but this will be the first time in the swing season after typically falling in the summer between the U.S. Open and the Open Championship. The Greenbrier will be our first look at recent Korn Ferry grads, and the results this week will be also instructive for the upcoming events. In the meantime, there's money to be made and winners to pick!
For more info on The Old White TPC along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the Course Primer. Stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club.
At the Top
Viktor Hovland (+1300) - Here's one for the record books -- Hovland boasts the shortest odds on the board in his first start as an official PGA Tour member. His exploits as an amateur are well trod territory at this point, as are his six straight top-16 finishes at the close of the 2018-19 season (four in PGA events and two in Korn Ferry events). He is the co-favorite with five-time PGA Tour winner Bryson DeChambeau, and while that may seem a bit extreme, consider for a moment that Hovland has gained an average of 1.7 strokes tee to green in his 36 rounds in PGA Tour events (and that does not include his performance at The Masters, which does not track strokes gained data). As a point of reference, just three players on Tour gained that many strokes per round in 2019 -- Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Cantlay. Each of those golfers are inside the top seven in the Official World Golf Ranking. Hovland is going to get a win soon. Ride him until he does, and if you're squeamish consider a hedge opportunity with a Top 20 finish (-125).
Joaquin Niemann (+2200) - Speaking of tee-to-green studs who are bound to win at some point, Niemann finished tied for fifth the last time the Tour visited The Old White TPC. Niemann played the swing last year and finished T10 at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin, another course where ball-striking is king. He struggled throughout the rest of the fall and winter until getting back on track at Colonial. In the early part of his career, Niemann has proven himself competent on bentgrass and, well, very much not so on other surfaces. If he keeps it in the fairway, he'll have a wedge into most greens and can play target practice.
Value Spots
Byeong-Hun An (+2900) - An is making his Greenbrier debut and should find a course well suited to his eye. He excels in all three tee-to-green facets, and he has come close to that elusive first career PGA win three times in the last two seasons. He posted runner-up finishes at the 2018 Memorial and RBC Canadian Open, and a third place at the Wyndham Championship at the end of the 2018-19 season. He had zero top-three finishes in his PGA Tour career before then, and he has honed his game to the point that if he rolls a few putts in he can push for a title.
Brian Harman (+5000) - Harman has been hit-or-miss the past couple years, with random top 10s sprinkled throughout otherwise unspectacular finishes. But with three such finishes in his final seven events of 2018-19, he finished the season on a high note despite failing to get past the first leg of the Playoffs. The key for Harman, as with most of the Tour's expansive middle class, is confidence. He has won on Tour before, which separates him immediately in fields like this that are short on star power. If Harman thinks he's the best player in this field, he may just go out and prove it.
Andrew Landry (+8000) - Landry really came on at the end of last season, and he ranks 15th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green in just the past 12 rounds. Like Harman, he's a PGA Tour winner who is out to prove he can do it again. He posted his best three finishes of the season in his final three events, including a solo third at the John Deere Classic, one of our comparable courses in the primer.
Long Shots
Shawn Stefani (+12000) - Speaking of golfers who were peaking at the end of last season, Stefani closed the season with five straight made cuts is and way up at seventh in this field in strokes gained: tee to green in just his last 12 rounds. He had his best tee to green performance of the season in his last event at the Wyndham, gaining 7.1 strokes. He is an inconsistent golfer like everyone priced this far down, but he has the ability to pop for a round or two and that can make all the difference. He's enticing for First-Round Leader (+10000) as well.
Rafael Campos (+32000) - For the truly long, thin plays, you can do worse than Campos. A Korn Ferry winner last year in the Bahamas, Campos has been the ultimate boom-or-bust play over the past two years. In addition to the win last year, he finished the Korn Ferry season T7-MC-T11-MC-MC, and he had 2nd and 3rd place finishes in 2018. A win would be astounding and is incredibly unlikely, but you're still getting a nice payout for a Top 20 finish (+1500).
