PGA Betting Guide for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
In just the second trip to Detroit Golf Club, we are still mostly flying blind trying to forecast this event. The volatility is ratcheted up by the scoring conditions, which ranked among the friendliest on Tour last year even with below average field strength. Last year's event saw a very unlikely story, with Nate Lashley winning by six strokes -- and not being offered at most sportsbooks and DFS sites by virtue of joining the field late in the week. A 100% win for the books is something we must avenge, and with one longshot already in the books at Detroit, we can afford to shoot our shot with the triple-digit plays.
That being said, we expect longer rough that should penalize the wayward tee shots more than last year. We also have a stronger top of the field this year, with three of the top 10 in the world teeing it up. It is truly a week where almost anything can happen.
For more info on Detroit Golf Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
We are all going to be annoyed when Bryson DeChambeau (+650) wins this thing by 10 strokes, but there is just too much volatility to suggest laying this number for just about any golfer in almost any field. So with apologies to Bryson, we'd consider him only if expending most of our available weekly units on him. As we won't do that here, we'll suggest one other top offer and move on to the good stuff.
Viktor Hovland (+2000) - The top of the market is filled with golfers who would be triple the odds in a stronger field, and while Hovland lacks the career record of those surrounding him on both sides, the books were happy to price him up here and shortened him up when he drew action earlier in the week. He has a style that is reminiscent of young Dustin Johnson -- gobs of talent that show up on both the hardest and easiest tracks. He was top amateur at The Masters and U.S. Open last year and is already a PGA Tour winner in a weak field.
Value Spots
Scottie Scheffler (+3200) - He took up space here last week at more than double the odds and promptly missed the cut, but Scheffler should be primed to bounce back and contend this week. He has not yet shown an ability to putt well enough to win, but with his ballstriking profile, he is one of those golfers that can climb the leaderboard if he just putts to the field average.
Kevin Na (+3800) - Na looked to be totally fine last week with a T5 finish at the Travelers after withdrawing from the RBC Heritage the week before. Just typical Na stuff it would seem, and his combination of iron play and putting is the winning formula here. He has been pretty up and down since January, but we know he has the upside to take down a tournament, and at longer odds than non-winners like Scheffler or Tony Finau (+3300), he is a great value at 38/1.
Long Shots
Sebastian Munoz (+15000) - If it is not a top guy this week, we really should look further down the board, as only a handful of the golfers in the middle class deserve to be priced much shorter than the triple-digits guys. Munoz was a winner in the fall and has seen some spike weeks with his irons since then. For the season, he ranks 36th on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green and 63rd in putting -- a nice combination for this price.
Wes Roach (+15000) - Roach was T3 here last year and has not done much since then, but he is one of the few golfers with course history and good memories from Detroit. Roach finished T5 on the Korn Ferry Tour two weeks ago, so add recent results to the equation. He gained in all facets of the game last year, and having lost strokes with the putter in seven straight measured tournaments heading into this week, he could be the beneficiary of some positive variance.
Josh Teater (+30000) - Teater is another golfer who has seen some limited success but really only in weaker fields. In 19 events since a T35 finish here last year, Teater has just five finishes better than 67th. Those finishes were all at weak-field events -- 2nd at the Puerto Rico Championship, T11 at the Bermuda Championship, T6 at the Wyndham Championship, T13 at the Barracuda Championship, and T6 at the Barbasol Championship. This field is certainly stronger than any of those, but if Teater pops we know he's good for at least a Top 20 finish (+900).
