PGA Betting Guide for the TOUR Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the TOUR Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The TOUR Championship offers a unique opportunity for the golf bettor, with the FedEx Cup Standings leaders starting with escalating scores all the way up to Dustin Johnson at 10-under par. DJ is going off at +185 with his two-stroke lead to start the week, and, in truth, barring multiple miracles, about half the field has a very small chance to actually win the event. However, FanDuel is also offering odds on the Lowest 72 Hole Scorer, which brings the rest of the field back into play.
We'll break down our favorite plays for each this week for each, as well as a few other offerings on FanDuel this week.
For more info on East Lake GC, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
Bets to Win the TOUR Championship
Collin Morikawa (+1800) - Morikawa will start the week five strokes back from Johnson, and while that is certainly significant, almost any golfer in this field can come back from or lose that kind of lead in just a few holes. Morikawa was six back in a full field at the PGA Championship after two rounds, tied for 25th. He eventually beat the 36-hole leader, Hao-Tong Li...by six strokes. With his combination of accuracy off the tee and world-class iron play, Morikawa can win just about anywhere. A victory at East Lake and a run at the FedEx Cup in just his second season as a pro would cap off an all-time historic season.
Daniel Berger (+2700) - Berger has been one of the best players in the world in 2020 and has an all-around game that translates to any course and a putting stroke that can really catch fire on Bermuda. He'll start at 4-under par with many of the top names in the world in front of him, but Berger will be up to the challenge. His confidence is at an all-time high, and he is putting himself in position to win week in and week out. He's finished inside the top five in six of his last nine tournaments, and that type of consistency paired with a need to be aggressive bodes well this week.
Bets to be Lowest 72 Hole Scorer
Berger (+1800) - Everything above applies even more so here, with the consistency at the top of the leaderboard and his putting stroke the main pointers.
Abraham Ancer (+6500) - We'll go with Ancer at a nice number for the week to finish off a good year on the back of his strong showing in the Presidents Cup. Way back in the starting scores at just 1-under, Ancer has quite a mountain to climb to actually win the event (he's +27000). But the key here is his driver. Ancer is not in the top-tier in terms of distance, but his ability to keep the ball in the short grass will serve him well at East Lake. He'll have to go for birdies given his starting position, and if he can putt like he did last week, he should be in the mix come Sunday.
First-Round Leader
Justin Thomas (+700) - Thomas is three shots behind Johnson to start, and we'll bet here that he can catch DJ and hold off the rest of the field once in seven tries. JT has one of the most aggressive streaks in him, and if he channels that into his driver, the three-shot lead could be up in no time. As the initial leader in last year's TOUR Championship, Thomas had one of the worst ballstriking rounds of his career, losing 3.0 strokes on approach. For reference, Thomas leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach this year, and his ranks the last three seasons are second, fourth, and sixth. He'll get his revenge this year with a fast start to take control of the tournament.
