PGA Betting Guide for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Mayakoba Golf Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
For the final PGA Tour event of 2020, we head down to Mexico, where a short track with low scores are there for the taking. This season has seen many events taken down by the best of the best and a carousel ride at the top of the world rankings before Dustin Johnson took control. The events not won by a top player, however, have seen some major longshots come through.
We'll key in on some value at the top of the market relative to the other names, then dive deep to find those lightning-in-a-bottle candidates who can give us a big return.
For more info on El Camaleon GC, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Daniel Berger (+1600) - There is hardly a case against the betting favorite Justin Thomas (+600), but that price is just far too high for any golfer in today's game. Thomas is a worthy choice just about anywhere and would shock absolutely no one were to end the year as he started, victorious at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. If you're betting one guy, load up on Thomas.
Unfortunately, Thomas' price this week would be prohibitive to building a full card without extending the bankroll beyond reason for a high-variance event, so instead, we'll start with Berger. It's been a career year for the 27-year-old, finally healthy and consistently competing even in the strongest fields. His stretch of six top-5 finishes in an eight-event span extending from before the COVID layoff through the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs was as solid a stretch as any golfer had this season outside of Johnson. That he won only once is a testament to how tough it is on Tour right now, and another trophy would cap off a terrific year.
Tony Finau (+1800) - Finau comes off next, not quite the reputation of a winner but trending favorably over Harris English (+1400) and Abraham Ancer (+1600), both offered at lower odds despite the former having not won since 2013, and Ancer having, ahem, never hoisted a trophy on the PGA Tour. That his 2013 win came here no doubt shades the betting market toward English, but he never came close in the interim until a T5 in last year's edition. Finau has quality history here as well, with a T7 and T16 to go with two missed cuts, and both have had solid 2020s. So grab Finau, the far more accomplished player since joining the Tour and available at better odds.
Value Spots
Rickie Fowler (+2700) - Fowler's odds have shortened since the opening, and while concerns about his long-term form are warranted, he is still a level up in class over much of his tier between 25/1 and 50/1. He likes it here as well, with a runner up in his Mayakoba debut in 2018 followed by a T16 last year. His place among the game's elite has faded as the rest of the top golfers have blown by him with their power off the tee, but El Camaleon should close that gap at least a bit, given that it barely cracks 7,000 yards. Shorter, straight hitters like Brendon Todd (+5000) and Matt Kuchar (not in the field) have won here the past two years.
Long Shots
Alexander Noren (+6500) - Noren has come back from the dead of late, with 6 top-25s in his last 10 worldwide events. He was a top-10 player in the world once upon a time, and like Fowler, the distance boom has pushed Noren down a few pegs. That should be muted here, and the short game has been lethal enough that if he strikes it well at all, this could cap off his comeback.
Adam Hadwin (+12000) - Hadwin was T10 in each of his last two tries at El Camaleon in fall 2018 and 2016. This time last year, he was gearing up for the President's Cup, now he's going off at three figures in an event surrounded by names who would never sniff the International Team. He's shown over his career that he can pile up good finishes at courses he likes, and after missing the cut in his first two cracks here, we can see the pieces fall into place for him and expect another strong showing. His large outright number inflates his price for a Top 20 Finish (+480).
For a really long shot, sprinkle a sheckle or two on Johnson Wagner (+42000), a former winner here with two other top-20s in the past five years. He has a propensity to pop up out of nowhere -- a sneaky pick to follow a few of our off-the-wall winners this fall who has the short game to get hot and potentially return a huge number.
