GOLF

Gdula's Golf Simulations and Betting Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic

Just how likely is Bryson DeChambeau to repeat at Detroit Golf Club? See what thousands of simulations have to say.

Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.

We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.

The Process

Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).

The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.

In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.

I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.

I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.

Here are the most likely winners for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, according to the models.

Golfer Simulated
Win%
Simulated
Top-10%
Simulated
Made Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win Odds
Bryson DeChambeau7.0%34.4%80.3%+700
Patrick Reed6.2%33.2%79.6%+1400
Webb Simpson5.4%30.7%78.2%+1600
Hideki Matsuyama3.3%25.0%73.9%+1600
Will Zalatoris3.0%22.4%72.3%+2000
Joaquin Niemann3.0%21.6%71.6%+2200
Jason Kokrak2.7%19.7%70.2%+2700
Cameron Tringale2.3%18.1%68.7%+4100
Si-Woo Kim2.3%18.4%68.3%+5000
Jason Day2.2%18.4%68.9%+2900
Charley Hoffman2.2%17.5%67.9%+3300
Brendon Todd2.2%16.8%67.1%+6000
Sungjae Im2.1%17.6%68.2%+2900
Emiliano Grillo1.8%16.2%66.5%+4100
Keegan Bradley1.7%16.7%66.6%+3400
Lanto Griffin1.6%13.2%63.2%+8000
Kevin Kisner1.5%13.3%63.4%+2900
Bubba Watson1.5%12.7%62.3%+3400
Max Homa1.4%13.9%63.4%+5000
Chris Kirk1.3%12.6%62.2%+8000
Matt Jones1.1%12.0%61.5%+8000
Doug Ghim1.1%11.8%61.1%+8000
Alex Noren1.1%12.1%61.7%+6500
Lucas Glover1.1%10.7%59.1%+6500
Harold Varner III1.1%11.7%61.0%+8000
Mackenzie Hughes1.0%9.2%56.5%+12000
Charles Howell III1.0%10.4%58.5%+12000
Gary Woodland0.9%11.4%59.9%+4100
Patton Kizzire0.9%9.9%58.2%+12000
Sebastian Munoz0.9%10.0%58.0%+10000
Rickie Fowler0.9%9.6%58.1%+4100
Matthew Wolff0.9%8.7%56.0%+2700
Cameron Davis0.8%9.2%57.1%+9000
James Hahn0.8%7.8%54.7%+21000
Adam Hadwin0.7%8.9%56.2%+10000
Tom Hoge0.7%8.0%55.3%+15000
Denny McCarthy0.7%7.3%54.1%+21000
Doc Redman0.7%8.6%55.9%+5000
Joel Dahmen0.7%9.2%56.8%+12000
Maverick McNealy0.7%9.3%56.9%+5500
Ryan Armour0.6%7.6%53.7%+8000
Pat Perez0.6%8.0%55.1%+10000
Mark Hubbard0.6%6.5%51.7%+12000
Kyle Stanley0.6%9.3%57.0%+6500
Chez Reavie0.6%7.8%54.8%+8000
Sepp Straka0.6%7.6%54.0%+6500
Dylan Frittelli0.6%7.1%53.2%+21000
Scott Stallings0.6%7.0%53.1%+15000
Danny Willett0.6%6.9%52.2%+6500
Kyounghoon Lee0.6%7.1%52.9%+15000
Brice Garnett0.6%7.8%55.1%+12000
Troy Merritt0.6%7.4%54.0%+10000
Hank Lebioda0.5%7.4%53.8%+12000
Adam Long0.5%6.7%52.0%+15000
Russell Knox0.5%7.8%55.0%+12000
Garrick Higgo0.5%7.3%53.5%+4100
Richy Werenski0.5%7.1%52.9%+15000
Nick Taylor0.5%6.8%52.4%+21000
Luke List0.5%7.2%53.0%+10000


Bryson DeChambeau (+700) is the favorite both in the simulations and also the betting market at Golf odds. The model is showing him as a pretty poor value at such a steep number. Should the simulations be higher on him at a course where he just won? Perhaps. Do I change the data to fit what I think should happen? No. Am I still considering betting DeChambeau? Probably, but I prefer him as a DFS play than an outright.

There's value on Webb Simpson (+1600), slightly. Simpson feels like he's been off the radar for a while but is in fine form and doesn't need length at Detroit Golf Club, so it's a good overall fit.

Cameron Tringale (+4100) is an even value and has finished 30th and 5th at this course, which isn't actually factored into the model. and Si Woo Kim (+5000) is rating out with positive expected value. The same applies to Brendon Todd (+6000), Lanto Griffin (+8000), Chris Kirk (+8000), Doug Ghim (+8000), and Cameron Davis (+9000), to name a few. That's what happens when the model sees a heavy favorite be overvalued.

I'm initially torn on pairing DeChambeau with these long shots or targeting more of the middle tier with Simpson, Joaquin Niemann (+2200), Tringale, and Kim.

I'll be settling on Simpson, Tringale, Kim, Griffin, Ghim, and Davis in some form or fashion.