Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: John Deere Classic
By now, you've probably dabbled in daily fantasy sports, but if not, don't worry. Now is a great time to start, especially with FanDuel's daily fantasy golf offering.
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. It's a great balance between time to research and time spent tracking your team.
But whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered -- and we have daily fantasy golf projections and lineup building tools, too.
Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week.
Key Stats for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Good Drive Rate
- Strokes Gained: Putting (on Bentgrass)
- Birdie or Better Rate
- Proximity From 125 Yards and Shorter
For a more detailed breakdown on the course, check out my course primer.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the John Deere Classic
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 100 rounds when possible, unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field.
Best of the Best
Daniel Berger (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf odds Win Odds: +900) - I know Berger is the favorite and the highest-salaried option in the field. I also know that, just last week, we saw that combination lead to Bryson DeChambeau on more than 50.0% of lineups on FanDuel -- only to miss the cut. However, my win simulations are higher on Berger's odds this week than they were on DeChambeau's odds last week. Berger is also the most consistent golfer in this field based on round-by-round adjusted strokes gained tallies over the past year. Berger enters ranked tops in the field in long-term adjusted strokes gained average by 0.46 strokes per round and is the best adjusted tee-to-green player, as well. He has a 5th and 33rd here in his career in two starts.
Zach Johnson ($10,400 | +4100) - Johnson has thrived at TPC Deere Run in the past with a win (2012) and five total top-five finishes in eight starts at the course since then. He has not finished worse than 37th in that sample, which did come in 2019 in his only start with negative strokes gained: putting. Johnson has missed four of his past eight cuts, though three of those were majors, which no longer really benefit the short-hitting Johnson. Johnson ranks 82nd-percentile in adjusted strokes gained: approach over the past year.
Others to Consider:
Russell Henley ($11,500 | +1600) - My favorite pivot away from Berger at the top; has the best adjusted irons over the past year.
Si Woo Kim ($11,000 | +2700) - Keep on going to Kim, who is great everywhere but around the greens. Has been losing with the putter recently.
Doc Redman ($10,100 | +5000) - Has 91st-percentile irons and a baseline putter on bentgrass; benefits from accuracy-heavy course.
Mid-Range Picks
Doug Ghim ($9,900 | +5000) - Ghim has one big red flag in his game, and that's the putter (21st percentile). However, he is in the 97th percentile in adjusted tee to green strokes gained over the past year. What helps is that Ghim is about neutral on bentgrass and really just struggles on bermuda greens. We saw him gain 0.9 strokes from putting last week on bentgrass, and if he can just do that, he's in play for a top-15 type of week with the usual tee-to-green numbers following.
Hank Lebioda ($9,700 | +4100) - Lebioda is in pretty elite form right now and has four top-20 finishes in his past six starts. That includes consecutive top-five finishes at the Rocket Mortgage and the Travelers, both of which compare fairly well to TPC Deere Run (small bentgrass greens and short-to-average length). He did that with hot putting (6.1 and 5.8 strokes gained, respectively) but also gained with the approach play.
Others to Consider:
Harold Varner ($9,700 | +5000) - Still great relative to this salary and has 86th-percentile birdie-or-better rate gained numbers.
Sebastian Munoz ($9,600 | +6500) - Tons of missed cuts recently but has been neutral tee to green and mostly poor with the putter.
Low-Salaried Picks
Steve Stricker ($9,000 | +4100) - Stricker has two wins in his past five starts on the Champions Tour and has been relevant still in PGA Tour events with a 44th at the PGA Championship (when losing strokes putting) and a 13th at the Honda Classic. The irons are still good, and his lack of distance won't matter much this week at a course where he once ripped off three straight wins from 2009 to 2011.
Roger Sloan ($8,700 | +8000) - Sloan's irons have been just lukewarm lately, but the long-term sample for him is more promising. Over the past year, Sloan ranks in the 77th percentile in this field in adjusted strokes gained: approach, and he also is in the 70th percentile in adjusted strokes gained: off the tee. Sloan has also started off hot at TPC Deere Run, finishing 18th and 10th in his two starts (the 18th coming back in 2015 but the 10th coming in 2019, the most recent iteration of this event).
Others to Consider:
Pat Perez ($9,000 | +6500) - An elite bentgrass putter (93rd percentile) with two top-15s in his past three starts.
Mito Pereira ($8,800 | +9000) - Cut last week despite positive tee-to-green numbers. Had two straight Korn Ferry Tour wins entering.
Ryan Armour ($8,500 | +6500) - Is just modest tee-to-green but a great putter who benefits from an accuracy-heavy course even if results don't show it.
Denny McCarthy ($8,600 | +10000) - Really only gains strokes putting but is in a weak field where that could be enough.
Adam Schenk ($7,700 | +21000) - Great statistical fit. Struggles around the green but shouldn't need that at a birdie-heavy course; 6th in 2019.
