AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Course Notes, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations, and Best Bets
In case last week -- playoff golf between two elite ball-strikers with putting woes trying to get elusive wins -- isn't your thing, then you're in luck because we'll be seeing some celebrity shots this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
While we'll have some stars from the entertainment world in this event, we'll also have only a few stars from the golf world.
Just 10 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings will be in action this week, though that is double the count from a year ago.
Let's dig into the course rotation, the key stats, and -- of course -- the picks for the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information
Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
Event Information
Past 5 Winning Scores: -18, -19, -19, -17, -19
Past 5 Cut Lines: -1, -3, -2, -3, E
Pebble Beach Golf Links Information
Par: 72
Distance: 6,972
Average Green Size: 3,500 square feet (tiny: around 58% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Poa annua
Stimpmeter: 10.5 (slow: average is 11.9)
Spyglass Hill Golf Course Information
Par: 72
Distance: 7,041
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small: around 83% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Poa annua
Stimpmeter: "Tournament speed"...whatever that means
Monterey Peninsula Country Club Information
Par: 71
Distance: 6,957
Average Green Size: 6,000 square feet (dead average)
Green Type: Poa annua
Stimpmeter: 12 (average for PGA Tour)
All three courses rate out at least 330 yards shorter than the average course at the same par on the PGA Tour, and both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill feature small greens. Pebble's greens are tiny.
We're getting slower greens this week because of the amateur angle. My data suggests that slower greens help weaker putters.
This means shorter hitters and weaker putters are in play, which means that a lot of volatility should be expected, especially in a pro-am setup.
Back to the scoring: we're looking at scores just shy of 20-under par this week to win and under-par scores to make the cut. We still want birdies. And yes, while we can downplay putting a bit, avoiding those who are terrible on poa can go a long way.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 5 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Birdie or Better Rate
- Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa
With small greens, iron play is always a potential to separate golfers here. The difference between sticking the smaller greens and missing them has typically been key. Among those tied for third or better last year, three were top-10 in strokes gained: approach (Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, and Patrick Cantlay); the outlier was Maverick McNealy, who ranked 35th in approach but 2nd around the green and 4th off the tee.
If you'll be missing greens, you'll need wedge play to bail you out. That was the case for most of the top-10 last year. Just bear in mind that ShotLink data comes only from the two rounds at Pebble Beach.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
Past winners in the field include Daniel Berger (2021), Nick Taylor (2020), Ted Potter (2018), Jordan Spieth (2017), Vaughn Taylor (2016), Brandt Snedeker (2013 and 2015), Jimmy Walker (2014), D.A. Points (2011), Peter Jacobsen (1995). Don't play Peter Jacobsen.
The following golfers have at least 8 rounds across these three courses with a strokes gained average of at least 1.0, via FantasyNational:
| Golfer | Strokes Gained: Average at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula |
|---|---|
| Daniel Berger | 2.9 |
| Jason Day | 2.4 |
| Jordan Spieth | 2.2 |
| Maverick McNealy | 2.2 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 2.1 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.8 |
| Justin Rose | 1.8 |
| Brandon Harkins | 1.6 |
| Kevin Streelman | 1.5 |
| Lucas Glover | 1.5 |
| Nick Taylor | 1.4 |
| Nate Lashley | 1.4 |
| Scott Stallings | 1.2 |
| Trey Mullinax | 1.2 |
| Cameron Champ | 1.2 |
| Jimmy Walker | 1.1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 1.1 |
| Brian Gay | 1.1 |
| Jonas Blixt | 1.1 |
| Tom Lehman | 1.1 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 1.1 |
| Matt Jones | 1.0 |
| Russell Knox | 1.0 |
| Camilo Villegas | 1.0 |
Win Simulations
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their Golf odds win odds.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | $12,300 | 13.2% | 50.9% | 88.4% | +750 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,500 | 4.0% | 25.0% | 73.2% | +1900 |
| Cameron Tringale | $11,200 | 3.9% | 25.6% | 73.8% | +2100 |
| Justin Rose | $11,400 | 3.4% | 23.0% | 71.1% | +2400 |
| Seamus Power | $11,100 | 3.3% | 23.5% | 72.3% | +2100 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $11,000 | 2.9% | 22.2% | 70.5% | +2900 |
| Maverick McNealy | $10,900 | 2.4% | 20.0% | 68.3% | +2100 |
| Charley Hoffman | $9,900 | 2.2% | 18.4% | 65.9% | +5500 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $10,500 | 2.0% | 15.8% | 63.4% | +4100 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $10,300 | 1.9% | 17.1% | 64.8% | +4100 |
| Taylor Moore | $9,500 | 1.7% | 16.1% | 63.2% | +9000 |
| Lanto Griffin | $10,100 | 1.7% | 16.3% | 63.6% | +4100 |
| Tom Hoge | $9,700 | 1.6% | 13.3% | 59.2% | +5000 |
| Jason Day | $11,300 | 1.5% | 14.3% | 61.0% | +1700 |
| Alex Smalley | $8,500 | 1.5% | 13.7% | 60.5% | +9000 |
| Brian Harman | $10,200 | 1.4% | 14.1% | 59.9% | +5000 |
| Matt Jones | $9,800 | 1.4% | 11.8% | 56.8% | +5000 |
| Kevin Streelman | $10,600 | 1.4% | 13.1% | 58.6% | +4600 |
| Ryan Palmer | $10,400 | 1.3% | 13.9% | 60.8% | +4100 |
| Guillermo Mito Pereira | $10,700 | 1.3% | 12.5% | 59.0% | +4100 |
| Troy Merritt | $9,700 | 1.2% | 11.9% | 57.1% | +9000 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,600 | 1.2% | 12.8% | 58.0% | +6500 |
| Pat Perez | $8,900 | 1.2% | 12.5% | 58.1% | +7500 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,800 | 1.2% | 12.3% | 57.3% | +5500 |
| Denny McCarthy | $9,900 | 1.2% | 12.1% | 57.1% | +5000 |
| Stewart Cink | $8,700 | 1.1% | 10.8% | 55.4% | +8000 |
| Dean Burmester | $9,000 | 1.1% | 10.5% | 54.7% | +10000 |
| Keith Mitchell | $8,700 | 1.0% | 10.7% | 55.8% | +8000 |
| Aaron Rai | $9,500 | 0.9% | 10.4% | 55.6% | +7500 |
| Chad Ramey | $8,300 | 0.9% | 9.5% | 52.2% | +12000 |
| Min Woo Lee | $10,000 | 0.9% | 10.8% | 55.0% | +6500 |
| Chez Reavie | $9,600 | 0.9% | 8.9% | 51.1% | +9000 |
| Adam Hadwin | $8,900 | 0.9% | 9.4% | 52.9% | +10000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,800 | 0.9% | 9.4% | 52.1% | +8000 |
| Lucas Glover | $9,400 | 0.9% | 9.2% | 52.5% | +6500 |
| Joel Dahmen | $9,300 | 0.9% | 10.0% | 53.9% | +8000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $9,300 | 0.9% | 9.3% | 52.4% | +8000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,400 | 0.9% | 9.0% | 51.4% | +15000 |
| Brendon Todd | $8,900 | 0.8% | 9.2% | 52.5% | +10000 |
| Russell Knox | $9,100 | 0.8% | 9.5% | 52.0% | +5000 |
| Nick Taylor | $9,100 | 0.8% | 7.5% | 48.6% | +10000 |
| Kevin Kisner | $10,800 | 0.7% | 7.9% | 49.6% | +4600 |
| Vincent Whaley | $8,500 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 51.0% | +12000 |
| Sahith Theegala | $8,600 | 0.7% | 8.0% | 49.1% | +6500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $8,600 | 0.7% | 8.0% | 49.5% | +9000 |
| Michael Thompson | $9,000 | 0.7% | 8.6% | 50.7% | +5500 |
| Scott Stallings | $9,200 | 0.7% | 8.1% | 49.6% | +9000 |
| Matthias Schwab | $8,400 | 0.7% | 8.5% | 51.7% | +12000 |
| Andrew Putnam | $9,200 | 0.6% | 8.7% | 50.7% | +6500 |
| Mark Hubbard | $8,400 | 0.6% | 7.7% | 49.5% | +15000 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $8,800 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 45.2% | +10000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $9,000 | 0.5% | 7.6% | 48.2% | +9000 |
| Brian Stuard | $8,100 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 44.4% | +21000 |
| Andrew Novak | $7,800 | 0.5% | 7.0% | 46.9% | +28000 |
| Adam Svensson | $8,000 | 0.5% | 6.1% | 45.3% | +10000 |
| Brice Garnett | $7,300 | 0.5% | 5.7% | 43.3% | +32000 |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,600 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 44.9% | +15000 |
| Ryan Armour | $8,100 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 44.5% | +15000 |
| Cameron Champ | $9,400 | 0.4% | 5.8% | 43.3% | +10000 |
| Davis Riley | $8,300 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 43.0% | +12000 |
| Tyler McCumber | $7,300 | 0.4% | 5.3% | 42.1% | +27000 |
| Wyndham Clark | $8,400 | 0.4% | 6.3% | 45.0% | +10000 |
| Kyle Stanley | $8,200 | 0.4% | 5.6% | 43.3% | +15000 |
| Kevin Tway | $7,500 | 0.4% | 6.6% | 44.9% | +35000 |
| Austin Eckroat | $8,300 | 0.4% | 5.5% | 42.4% | +21000 |
| Dylan Wu | $7,600 | 0.4% | 4.5% | 40.7% | +27000 |
| David Lipsky | $8,100 | 0.4% | 5.5% | 43.4% | +15000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets
Patrick Cantlay (+750) has fared well at Pebble Beach in the past and is the most likely winner this week by a big margin. That'll come at a premium, however, as he's 11.8% (implied) likely to win at +750 odds. I'll likely be starting my card elsewhere, though all things considered, he's not a terrible bet and is valued fairly.
Berger, last year's winner, is +1200 and also a fair value at that number. I've got interest, though some of it might be based on the fact that I backed him last year here, too. [Editor's note: Berger has withdrawn.]
With those two rating out fairly, most of the others at the top are not drawing much expected value from the model.
Seamus Power (+2700) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+3100) rate as the best second-tier plays, though I've got more interest in Cameron Tringale than Fitz.
There are some long-shots showing value: Charley Hoffman (+6500), Pat Perez (+8000), Taylor Moore (+9000), and Alex Smalley (+10000).
Ultimately, I might go with Cantlay, Berger, and the long shots myself.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Patrick Cantlay (FanDuel Salary: $12,300 | Golf odds Win Odds: +750) - Cantlay, over the past year and adjusted for recency and field strength ranks first in my model in overall strokes gained, strokes gained: tee to green, and strokes gained: off the tee. He's second in approach play. He's awesome, and he's been top-12 here in each of the past two years.
Seamus Power ($11,100 | +2700) - Seamus is trending up in a big way. Power has an elite fairway-through-green game (97th percentile in this field in strokes gained minus off-the-tee play) and is the field leader in birdie rate over the past 50 rounds, as well. Though Power has had some mixed results at this setup in the past, he is in substantially better form now than he has been entering any other tries at Pebble.
Others to Consider:
Daniel Berger ($11,900 | +1200) - Only a tick below Cantlay; a great tournament pivot away from him, too. [Editor's note: Berger has withdrawn.]
Maverick McNealy ($10,900 | +2700) - Irons are trending up and that's the last key piece. Great poa putter.
Lanto Griffin ($10,100 | +4100) - Strong on poa, top-tier birdie-maker, and 93rd-percentile long-term form.
Mid-Range Picks
Tom Hoge ($9,700 | +5500) - Hoge has what you're looking for in an upside option. His approach play is there for spike weeks (94th percentile). He's a negative on poa (-0.10 strokes per round with adjustments) but still sits in the 79th percentile in birdie or better rate. He also finished 12th last year here.
Joel Dahmen ($9,300 | +8000) - Dahmen is coming in off of two straight missed cuts -- but that's despite positive strokes gained: tee to green. He hasn't been putting well, which is very much in the cards for Dahmen, whose putting is always iffy. However, he is yet to miss a cut at Pebble in four tries. The birdie potential is there for a huge week with his current form. His odds lengthened from +6500 to +8000, so he might be an afterthought this week.
Others to Consider:
Charley Hoffman ($9,900 | +6500) - Has withdrawn two straight weeks but is a stud option at the salary if he goes.
Chez Reavie ($9,600 | +9000) - Has three top-25s and four straight made cuts at Pebble; is a question mark with the putter, however.
Lucas Glover ($9,400 | +6500) - Form has been solid in 2022: 35th, 5th, 33rd since the new year; 93rd-percentiel tee-to-green play.
Low-Salaried Picks
Pat Perez ($8,900 | +8000) - He found his irons at Torrey Pines, his home course, last week -- and the putter, too. He's played Pebble Beach plenty and enters with pretty elite form for the field. He's in the 86th percentile in adjusted strokes gained in my model despite the value salary. He putts well on poa and makes birdies. It's the right week to play Perez.
Alex Smalley ($8,500 | +10000) - Smalley actually rates out better in my long-term adjusted form (89th percentile) than Perez. He's a good driver and a positive with his irons and wedges, too. His putter was ice cold last week (-5.4 strokes in three measured rounds at Torrey Pines' South Course), so perhaps regression is in order.
Others to Consider:
Patrick Rodgers ($8,800 | +8000) - Irons are still iffy but has the rest of the package to rack up fantasy points.
Chad Ramey ($8,300 | +12000) - Has good iron play overall; putter is hot in very limited poa sample.
Joseph Bramlett ($8,200 | +12000) - Three straight made cuts with great driving; could've found something over the break.
