GOLF

Cadence Bank Houston Open: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

We have just two more weeks before the true PGA Tour offseason kicks in.

This week, the Tour heads to Houston for the Cadence Bank Houston Open. Next week, it's off to Sea Island for The RSM Classic before the Thanksgiving break.

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

Memorial Park Golf Course Info & Key Stats

Par: 70
Distance: 7,412 (long: ~210 yards longer than the average par 70)
Fairway Width: 31.4 yards (32nd of 80 qualified courses)
Average Green Size: 7,000 square feet (~115% the PGA average)
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: N/A
Past 5 Winning Scores: -10, -13
Past 5 Cut Lines: +1, +3
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, Adjusted Strokes Gained

Unlike with a lot of the fall season events, the Houston Open at Memorial Park has played a bit tough relative to par. We've seen two over-par cutlines and winning scores between -10 and -13 in the two years Memorial Park has hosted this event.

It's not a huge sample of events at this course (just two years), so we're still extrapolating what works best here. Keep that in mind. The two winners -- Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak -- are no longer with the PGA Tour, and they have pretty different playstyles anyway.

Often, par 5s are gettable for PGA Tour players, but at Memorial Park, the three par 5s play as the fifth-toughest among ShotLink courses.

It's also tough to gain strokes around the green here, and those who are able to do it can separate from the field. That's why it's a key stat this week.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played here over the past two years:

- Hideki Matsuyama (+3.41: DNP in 2022, 2nd in 2021)
- Joel Dahmen (+2.35: 5th, DNP)
- Sam Burns (+2.25: 7th, 7th)
- Robert Streb (+2.10: 7th, DNP)
- Adam Long (+2.00: 11th, 11th)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.88: 2nd, 32nd)
- Sepp Straka (+1.68: cut, 5th)
- Russell Henley (+1.63: 7th, 29th)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+1.63: 29th, 7th)
- Aaron Wise (+1.63: 26th, 11th)
- Alex Smalley (+1.60: 15th)
- Vincent Whaley (+1.60: 15th)
- Maverick McNealy (+1.50: 19th, 20th)
- Kevin Tway (+1.50: 2nd, cut)

Neither of the two winners at Memorial Park (Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak) is with the PGA Tour.

Win Simulations for the Cadence Bank Houston Open

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Scottie
Scheffler
$12,00012.6%47.1%86.4%+550
Tony
Finau
$11,6006.1%35.6%85.0%+1600
Sam
Burns
$11,8005.4%30.2%78.3%+1200
Taylor
Montgomery
$11,0003.3%27.0%75.6%+2700
Aaron
Wise
$11,5003.3%26.5%80.1%+1600
Russell
Henley
$11,3002.7%23.4%76.8%+2200
Hideki
Matsuyama
$11,4002.6%22.7%77.7%+2200
Jason
Day
$10,9002.5%18.0%69.0%+2200
Denny
McCarthy
$10,8001.9%18.9%74.6%+3700
Taylor
Pendrith
$9,8001.8%16.8%70.7%+4100
Maverick
McNealy
$11,1001.8%18.4%74.2%+2600
Davis
Riley
$9,9001.7%14.5%64.5%+3700
Keith
Mitchell
$9,5001.6%17.9%73.5%+6000
Emiliano
Grillo
$10,3001.6%13.9%67.0%+4200
Adam
Hadwin
$9,9001.6%14.4%65.2%+6500
Sahith
Theegala
$10,6001.6%14.4%64.8%+4100
Lee
Hodges
$9,1001.5%12.5%62.3%+9500
Alex
Noren
$10,1001.4%16.4%72.5%+5000
Matthew
NeSmith
$10,7001.4%14.5%67.9%+4000
Brendan
Steele
$8,7001.4%12.2%61.3%+8000
Justin
Rose
$8,8001.3%11.2%61.2%+9500
Andrew
Putnam
$9,7001.2%14.6%70.9%+6000
Sepp
Straka
$8,8001.2%10.9%60.2%+6500
Beau
Hossler
$8,6001.2%10.8%60.3%+12000
Sebastian
Munoz
$9,1001.1%15.0%71.0%+6000
Francesco
Molinari
$9,0001.1%9.1%58.2%+9500
Siwoo
Kim
$10,4001.1%13.7%66.6%+5000
Stephan
Jaeger
$8,1001.0%8.7%57.3%+12000
Ryan
Palmer
$8,1000.9%9.1%57.1%+12000
Taylor
Moore
$10,2000.9%10.8%62.7%+6000
William
Gordon
$9,3000.9%9.2%57.2%+5000
Wyndham
Clark
$9,7000.8%9.8%63.1%+6000
Gary
Woodland
$8,7000.8%9.7%62.8%+6500
Mackenzie
Hughes
$9,8000.8%10.0%61.2%+5000
Brandon
Wu
$9,2000.8%8.2%56.2%+6500
Dean
Burmester
$9,4000.8%11.4%66.5%+6000
Adam
Svensson
$8,1000.8%8.0%57.6%+16000
Justin
Suh
$9,0000.7%9.1%62.2%+8000
Patrick
Rodgers
$9,9000.7%10.7%65.9%+6500
Stewart
Cink
$7,8000.7%7.5%54.2%+16000
Harris
English
$9,6000.7%6.9%53.3%+5500
Yechun
Carl
Yuan
$7,6000.7%7.9%56.4%+19000
Joel
Dahmen
$10,5000.6%9.0%61.2%+4100
Nick
Taylor
$8,6000.6%7.5%57.9%+14000
MJ
Daffue
$7,7000.6%6.8%53.7%+21000
Alex
Smalley
$10,0000.6%9.9%64.3%+6500
Benjamin
Griffin
$8,5000.6%6.7%52.3%+17000
James
Hahn
$7,6000.6%6.2%51.2%+19000
Luke
List
$9,3000.5%8.0%58.6%+9500
Adam
Schenk
$9,5000.5%7.9%55.0%+8000
Aaron
Rai
$9,4000.5%8.5%62.4%+8000
Mark
Hubbard
$8,5000.5%8.4%63.0%+11000
Martin
Laird
$8,6000.5%8.5%62.0%+12000
David
Lipsky
$8,7000.5%7.7%61.0%+12000
Adam
Long
$8,9000.5%7.5%60.4%+8000
Trey
Mullinax
$8,4000.5%7.0%55.2%+10000
Ben
Martin
$7,4000.5%5.0%47.5%+30000
Robby
Shelton
IV
$7,4000.5%5.9%55.2%+10000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Cadence Bank Houston Open

The model is, once again, big on Scottie Scheffler but thinks he should be closer to +700 than +550. At such a small return, I think I'll be looking elsewhere in terms of starting my card.

Where I can look is to Tony Finau (+1600). My model is showing slight value on Finau to pick up a third win since July.

Taylor Montgomery (+2700) and Keith Mitchell (+6000) are next up in terms of guys showing to be fair or positive values. It's tough out there with Scheffler taking up 12.6% of the odds but being a bit overvalued.

Brendan Steele (+8000) and Adam Hadwin (+6500) are slight targets, as well, but both have issues -- short game for Steele and pure upside for Hadwin.

So, I'll be looking to go to Finau, Montgomery, and Mitchell for outrights.

The best top-10 values in my model: Mitchell (+600), Montgomery (+320), Beau Hossler (+1100), Hadwin (+650), Steele (+800), and Sebastian Munoz (+600).

First-round leader values include Montgomery (+4200), Lee Hodges (+8000), Hossler (+9500), Stephan Jaeger (+9500), and Will Gordon (+7500).

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Cadence Bank Houston Open

All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Scottie Scheffler (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | Golf betting odds: +550) - The odds for Scheffler last week were +950. They're +550 this week, and he's accounting for over 12% of the win equity in my simulation model. Scheffler was 32nd here in 2021 and runner-up last year. Scheffler shot up the leaderboard over the weekend last week at Mayakoba to finish T3. Scheffler leads the field in both strokes gained: off the tee and in strokes gained: approach over the past 50 rounds while sitting top-30 in both distance and accuracy off the tee. That's a stellar start, and the putting can only go up (88th) from here. We don't have ShotLink data from last week, but Scheffler did rank 12th in putts per green in regulation.

Tony Finau ($11,600 | +1600) - We'll have to overlook a missed cut from last week to like Finau, but we can definitely do that. A two-round sample isn't predictive of anything when we know who Finau is long-term. Who is he? He's top-10 in all four strokes gained: stats among this field over the last 50 rounds. Finau finished T24 here in the 2021 season and missed the cut last year while tanking on the greens. Finau has gained strokes in all three tee-to-green areas in both starts at Memorial Park, though. He and Scheffler are in a tier of their own this week.

Others to Consider:
Taylor Montgomery ($11,000 | +2700) - Hard to prioritize with three big studs at the top of the field (Scheffler, Finau, Sam Burns) but has a short-game that won't cool down.
Denny McCarthy ($10,800 | +3700) - Not a great course fit, but that doesn't matter a ton this week; undervalued based on long-term form.
Emiliano Grillo ($10,300 | +4200) - Really on the upswing with the putter (37th) and 11th in T2G.

Mid-Range Picks

Taylor Pendrith ($9,800 | +4100) - Pendrith ranks 4th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green and is top-20 in both off-the-tee (3rd) and approach (18th). Distance can help at any course, and Pendrith has it (seventh). He shouldn't catch much popularity because the recent form isn't anything great: T44 at the Shriners and T67 at the Fortinet with a missed cut at Houston last year. Pendrith's form is at its peak, however, and he should have a five-digit salary in this field.

Keith Mitchell ($9,500 | +6000) - Mitchell has the best long-term form in my model over the past year among those in the $9,000 range. Mitchell is a plus off the tee in both distance and accuracy, and that'll help overcome 76th-ranked irons. He's not a flawless player, but the field does really drop off around here. He's coming off of a missed cut last week and hasn't finished better than T40 in his other two events. It's possible the form is gone, yet if that's just a small-sample blip, then Mitchell will prove under-salaried.

Others to Consider:
Andrew Putnam ($9,700 | +6000) - Short off the tee but 3rd in strokes gained: approach through putting.
Will Gordon ($9,300 | +5000) - 10th in ball-striking; T3 last week; T38 at Houston in 2021.
Sebastian Munoz ($9,100 | +6000) - The results aren't there but 15th in T2G.

Low-Salaried Picks

Brendan Steele ($8,900 | +8000) - Steele isn't without his issues. His combined short-game ranks 109th among the field. The ball-striking? It's second, including ranking top-four in both of those stats. Steele most recently finished T18 at THE CJ CUP and T40 at the ZOZO. The putting can and does lead to missed cuts, but if you're seeking ceiling, then Steele has it, too.

Robby Shelton ($7,400 | +10000) - I think there are better outright plays than Shelton in the value range but not necessarily better plays at salary. Shelton missed the cut in Houston in 2021 at Memorial Park, and he also missed the cut at Mayakoba last week. However, he was T23 at Bermuda, T15 at Shriners, T61 at Sanderson Farms, and T21 at the Fortinet. Shelton is a viable 34th in approach and is 11th in combined short game.

Others to Consider:
Davis Thompson ($8,900 | +6500) - A bet on T2G play, specifically driving ability.
Gary Woodland ($8,700 | +6500) - Top-10 ball-striker but short game isn't there right now. With an uptick, can be elite versus this field.
Mark Hubbard ($8,500 | +11000) - Good made cut odds in my model for the salary; strong iron player.