The American Express: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
If you find one course to follow on the PGA Tour boring, you're in luck because we've got three times the fun this week.
The American Express will be played out on three courses over four rounds, and that means a 54-hole cut. Each golfer in the field will have a round at PGA West (the Pete Dye Stadium Course), PGA West (the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course), and La Quinta Country Club. The final round on Sunday will be at the Stadium Course.
That means more guaranteed holes (and more fantasy-point potential). How does that impact the way that we can build lineups?
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
Event Information
Past 5 Winning Scores: -23, -23*, -26, -26, -22
Past 5 Cut Lines: -7, -4*, -9, -9, -8
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Distance), Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Adjusted Strokes Gained
Two years ago, the event was held at just two courses, the Stadium and Tournament courses (hence the asterisk in the scoring results). The scoring was a bit tougher that year.
La Quinta is back on the menu (as it was last year), and that means golfers will need to go deep. Birdies are a must, and aggressive golfers should get a boost for us this week.
The three courses are all par 72s, so par 5 scoring could be the differentiator, and you have to make putts.
We've got ShotLink data at just the Stadium Course, so it's a bit of a mess going back through the past results, and it's better just to lean lightly on event history from a granular sense and let recent form do the work for us this week.
PGA West (Stadium Course) Information
Par: 72
Distance: 7,187
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: 11+
PGA West (Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course) Information
Par: 72
Distance: 7,159
Average Green Size: 7,000 square feet
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: N/A
La Quinta Country Club Course Information
Par: 72
Distance: 7,060
Average Green Size: N/A
Green Type: Bermuda
Stimpmeter: 11.5
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years:
- Patrick Cantlay (+3.05): 9th, 2nd, DNP, 9th, DNP
- Jon Rahm (+2.77): 14th, DNP, DNP, 6th, 1st
- Adam Hadwin (+2.40): 25th, 32nd, DNP, 2nd, 3rd
- Tony Finau (+2.15): 40th, 4th, 14th, DNP, DNP
- Sungjae Im (+2.11): 11th, 12th, 10th, 12th, DNP
- Cameron Davis (+2.11): DNP, 3rd, 29th, 28th, DNP
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.06): 25th, MC, 3rd, DNP, DNP
- Andrew Putnam (+1.72): 14th, 21st, 10th, 34th, 17th
- Sam Burns (+1.52): DNP, MC, 6th, 18th, DNP
- Brian Harman (+1.45): 3rd, 8th, 21st, MC, 20th
- Andrew Landry (+1.29): MC, 64th, 1st, 28th, 2nd
- Tom Hoge (+1.26): 2nd, MC, 6th, MC, 57th
Past winners in the field include Si Woo Kim (2021), Andrew Landry (2020), Adam Long (2019), Jon Rahm (2018), Jason Dufner (2016), Bill Haas (2010 and 2015), Brian Gay (2013), Jhonattan Vegas (2011), and Charley Hoffman (2007).
Win Simulations for The American Express
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | $12,000 | 11.7% | 37.1% | 90.3% | +550 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $11,800 | 8.7% | 44.8% | 90.4% | +1000 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,700 | 6.2% | 39.1% | 88.3% | +950 |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,300 | 6.1% | 40.3% | 88.9% | +2000 |
| Tony Finau | $11,500 | 5.7% | 38.3% | 88.5% | +1500 |
| Cameron Young | $10,700 | 5.6% | 33.1% | 81.7% | +2100 |
| Will Zalatoris | $11,100 | 5.2% | 35.2% | 86.5% | +1900 |
| Sungjae Im | $10,900 | 3.3% | 25.2% | 78.5% | +2100 |
| Taylor Montgomery | $10,400 | 2.4% | 21.9% | 72.1% | +4200 |
| Sam Burns | $10,500 | 2.0% | 19.0% | 69.9% | +3100 |
| Aaron Wise | $10,100 | 2.0% | 20.9% | 78.1% | +4200 |
| Tom Kim | $11,000 | 1.9% | 20.6% | 77.3% | +2000 |
| Brian Harman | $10,300 | 1.8% | 19.5% | 75.9% | +3400 |
| Jason Day | $9,600 | 1.5% | 15.9% | 64.3% | +7000 |
| Tom Hoge | $10,200 | 1.3% | 14.7% | 70.2% | +3100 |
| Sahith Theegala | $9,900 | 1.2% | 13.2% | 61.1% | +5000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $9,700 | 1.0% | 12.5% | 67.0% | +5000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $9,400 | 1.0% | 12.4% | 68.0% | +8500 |
| Brendan Steele | $8,900 | 0.9% | 9.9% | 55.6% | +11000 |
| SiWoo Kim | $10,800 | 1.0% | 11.1% | 61.6% | +3400 |
| Keith Mitchell | $9,100 | 0.9% | 12.8% | 67.4% | +9500 |
| Denny McCarthy | $9,000 | 0.8% | 11.1% | 64.3% | +9500 |
| Cameron Davis | $10,000 | 0.8% | 11.4% | 65.4% | +3400 |
| Wyndham Clark | $9,500 | 0.8% | 9.4% | 62.9% | +6500 |
| Davis Riley | $9,200 | 0.8% | 10.6% | 58.8% | +9500 |
| J.T. Poston | $9,900 | 0.8% | 10.7% | 64.0% | +5000 |
| Adam Hadwin | $9,800 | 0.7% | 10.8% | 60.6% | +6500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $9,300 | 0.7% | 10.7% | 64.5% | +9500 |
| Beau Hossler | $7,800 | 0.7% | 8.9% | 53.0% | +23000 |
| Justin Rose | $9,300 | 0.7% | 9.6% | 56.9% | +9000 |
| Alex Smalley | $8,700 | 0.7% | 9.0% | 61.1% | +12000 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $8,200 | 0.7% | 9.5% | 57.4% | +19000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $8,900 | 0.6% | 9.3% | 59.4% | +12000 |
| Lee Hodges | $8,500 | 0.6% | 8.6% | 53.5% | +14000 |
| William Gordon | $9,000 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 53.1% | +10000 |
| Thomas Detry | $9,100 | 0.6% | 8.2% | 54.3% | +9500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $9,800 | 0.6% | 10.2% | 64.3% | +5000 |
| Dean Burmester | $8,800 | 0.5% | 7.5% | 58.3% | +12000 |
| Luke List | $8,700 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 50.3% | +12000 |
| Sebastian Munoz | $8,900 | 0.5% | 9.0% | 61.0% | +11000 |
| Carl Yuan | $7,400 | 0.5% | 6.6% | 50.7% | +16000 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,600 | 0.5% | 5.9% | 53.4% | +6500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,800 | 0.5% | 6.9% | 52.5% | +12000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $8,500 | 0.4% | 7.1% | 58.1% | +16000 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,500 | 0.4% | 6.9% | 56.8% | +8000 |
| David Lipsky | $9,000 | 0.4% | 5.7% | 53.5% | +10000 |
| Benjamin Griffin | $8,600 | 0.4% | 6.2% | 49.7% | +12000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for The American Express
At odds so short (+550), I can't suggest backing Jon Rahm, who I have at +700 or so. Scottie Scheffler (+1000) is the more valuable option at the top of the board.
The model is liking Xander Schauffele (+2000), but that doesn't specifically account for his uncertain health. He withdrew from the Tournament of Champions because of a back injury two weeks ago.
An up-and-coming trio of Cameron Young (+2100), Will Zalatoris (+1900), and Taylor Montgomery (+4200) are all positive expected values in the model, and I can see the case for each of them this week. Sungjae Im (+2100) is more than viable as well.
Top-10 values, per the model, include Schauffele (+170), Aaron Wise (+450), Montgomery (+410), Young (+200), and Zalatoris (+180) with Taylor Pendrith (+750) as a nice option at longer odds.
I'm starting my card with Young and Im outrights.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for The American Express
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Jon Rahm (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | Golf betting odds: +550) - There's just no way around it. Rahm is the best play of the week, and the case for avoiding him is simply game theory (i.e. hoping he either misses the cut or just doesn't play well). But Rahm is the best long-term golfer in the field and has a win at this setup in the past. Plus, the 54-hole cut -- in theory -- reduces variance by giving us an added round for our golfers to separate. Even a missed cut from Rahm means a loss of 18 holes instead of 36. It's very helpful if he misses the cut and you fade him, but it's less impactful than most weeks -- and it's less likely. In lineups where I'm fading him, I'm going to have a lot of Scheffler.
Tony Finau ($11,500 | +1500) - A lot of the win equity is clustered at the top of the player pool, which means that we can go with an unbalanced approach for our lineups with two studs with high-end win upside. While others might have better pure win juice in the model than Finau, it's hard to knock any of what he does statistically (second in strokes gained: tee to green and sixth in putting with good form at this particular event).
Others to Consider:
Xander Schauffele ($11,300 | +1900) - Should be a value if he's healthy; withdrew last event with a back injury, so monitor things.
Cameron Young ($10,700 | +2100) - Long off the tee, which is an advantage here; sixth in ball-striking overall.
Tom Hoge ($10,200 | +4200) - Keeps striping the irons; 2nd, MC, 6th here the past three years.
Mid-Range Picks
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($9,700 | +6500) - There aren't any holes in Lee's game, and that should help elevate him over 54 guaranteed holes. The profile is about as balanced as we get, and he's turned that into a T7 at the Tournament of Champions and a T28 at the Sony Open last week to kick off 2023.
Taylor Pendrith ($9,400 | +8500) - A bet on the driver being able to separate, Pendrith works. He's 5th in strokes gained: off the tee and 12th in overall ball-striking. That's paired with 97th-ranked short-game, though. Though there's no true level of safety this low in the salary pool, we can lock in a guarantee of strokes gained from the tee box with Pendrith, as he has done it in 15 straight measured events.
Others to Consider:
Andrew Putnam ($9,800 | +5000) - Rode a hot putter to T4 last week; long-term, he's 23rd in SG:T2G.
Keith Mitchell ($9,100 | +10000) - One of the best overall drivers in the field (8th in SG:OTT) and a viable 56th in the three others combined.
Low-Salaried Picks
Denny McCarthy ($9,000 | +9500) - Last year, McCarthy was T6 at this event, and we saw him finish T32 at the Sony Open last week in a typical fashion: he putted really well. He's the 11th-best putter in the field. That does lead to upside, and while he's not a standout iron player, he's still 71st with neutral overall ball-striking.
Emiliano Grillo ($8,900 | +12000) - By far, Grillo is the best value in my model among those with salaries of $9,000 or lower. He's really upped the putting over the long-term, and he's a top-20 ball-striker in the field, as well. He did miss the cut at Waialae last week from poor putting -- but the ball-striking was there. That's a good recipe.
Others to Consider:
Alex Smalley ($8,700 | +12000) - 25th here last year and 40th in SG:T2G.
Matthew NeSmith ($8,200 | +19000) - 23rd in SG:APP; two straight missed cuts here but also a T17 before that.
Ben Taylor ($8,000 | +17000) - T4 last week thanks to great fairway-through-green numbers; showing good early returns with irons.
