AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
After a come-from-behind win by Max Homa at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, we head to a trio of courses for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, an event with a multi-stroke winner in six straight years.
How does the setup alter the way we should be building our PGA DFS lineups?
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
Event Information
Past 5 Winning Scores: -19, -18, -19, -19, -17
Past 5 Cut Lines: -4, -1, -3, -2, -3
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Adjusted Strokes Gained
Pebble Beach Golf Links Information
Par: 72
Distance: 6,972
Average Green Size: 3,500 square feet (tiny: around 58% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Poa annua
Stimpmeter: 10.5 (slow: average is 11.9)
Spyglass Hill Golf Course Information
Par: 72
Distance: 7,041
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small: around 83% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Poa annua
Stimpmeter: "Tournament speed"
Monterey Peninsula Country Club Information
Par: 71
Distance: 6,957
Average Green Size: 6,000 square feet (dead average)
Green Type: Poa annua
Stimpmeter: 12 (average for PGA Tour)
With an overall lack of distance across the three courses plus small greens, we're going to see an emphasis on iron play. While we have ShotLink data at only one of the three courses, we can infer the importance of strokes gained: approach through two rounds of actual ShotLink data and four rounds of greens in regulation numbers.
Distance alone isn't enough, and accuracy off the tee correlates stronger to strokes gained averages at the Pebble Beach trio of courses.
What this means is that no golfers are out of the running due to a lack of driving distance.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.36) - 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 45th, 20th
- Kevin Streelman (+2.35) - MC, 13th, 2nd, 7th, 6th
- Troy Merritt (+2.14) - 4th, 16th, 25th, DNP, 8th
- Maverick McNealy (+1.95) - 33rd, 2nd, 5th, DNP, MC
- Nick Taylor (+1.80) - 14th, 39th, 1st, 28th, MC
- Scott Stallings (+1.68) - MC, 30th, MC, 3rd, 7th
- Russell Knox (+1.62) - 33rd, 7th, MC, 14th, 15th
- Matthew NeSmith (+1.61) - 65th, 16th, 11th, DNP, DNP
- Tom Hoge (+1.39) - 1st, 12th, 60th, MC, MC
- Henrik Norlander (+1.37) - DNP, 26th, 25th, MC, MC
- Lanto Griffin (+1.35) - 16th, DNP, 9th, DNP, MC
Past winners in the field include Tom Hoge (2022), Nick Taylor (2020), Ted Potter (2018), Jordan Spieth (2017), Jimmy Walker (2014), and D.A. Points (2011).
A lot of past winners are no longer with the PGA Tour, including five-time champion Phil Mickelson and two-time champ Dustin Johnson.
Win Simulations for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $11,800 | 8.9% | 32.4% | 88.0% | +1100 |
| Viktor Hovland | $11,700 | 6.9% | 38.9% | 86.8% | +1100 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,900 | 5.1% | 29.8% | 80.6% | +1100 |
| Maverick McNealy | $11,100 | 3.1% | 23.9% | 79.9% | +1600 |
| Seamus Power | $11,200 | 2.8% | 20.4% | 75.6% | +1900 |
| Tom Hoge | $11,400 | 2.6% | 23.8% | 80.3% | +1900 |
| Justin Rose | $10,800 | 2.6% | 19.5% | 67.6% | +2900 |
| Matt Kuchar | $10,400 | 2.6% | 23.6% | 79.6% | +3700 |
| Scott Stallings | $9,900 | 2.5% | 19.3% | 69.7% | +5500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $11,000 | 2.5% | 24.0% | 80.0% | +2400 |
| Keith Mitchell | $10,700 | 2.1% | 19.4% | 76.1% | +3300 |
| Kurt Kitayama | $9,400 | 2.0% | 16.8% | 65.7% | +7000 |
| Denny McCarthy | $10,500 | 2.0% | 19.5% | 76.6% | +3400 |
| Thomas Detry | $10,200 | 1.8% | 15.2% | 64.7% | +4800 |
| Matthew NeSmith | $9,100 | 1.6% | 16.1% | 64.7% | +8500 |
| Beau Hossler | $9,000 | 1.6% | 14.4% | 62.3% | +7000 |
| Joel Dahmen | $10,600 | 1.6% | 14.8% | 68.0% | +3600 |
| Alex Smalley | $10,300 | 1.6% | 15.2% | 71.3% | +4600 |
| Taylor Pendrith | $10,100 | 1.5% | 12.3% | 68.1% | +4800 |
| Benjamin Griffin | $10,000 | 1.4% | 12.9% | 60.7% | +5500 |
| Dean Burmester | $9,800 | 1.4% | 11.4% | 63.5% | +5000 |
| Nick Hardy | $9,000 | 1.4% | 13.6% | 64.9% | +7000 |
| Trey Mullinax | $9,600 | 1.4% | 11.8% | 59.0% | +7000 |
| Davis Riley | $9,500 | 1.3% | 13.8% | 65.6% | +6500 |
| Brendon Todd | $9,500 | 1.3% | 15.7% | 72.2% | +7000 |
| Taylor Moore | $9,700 | 1.1% | 12.5% | 65.0% | +7000 |
| David Lipsky | $9,800 | 1.1% | 10.9% | 61.7% | +5500 |
| Callum Tarren | $8,700 | 1.0% | 9.8% | 62.6% | +9000 |
| William Gordon | $9,600 | 1.0% | 10.0% | 57.6% | +7000 |
| Byeong Hun An | $8,700 | 1.0% | 9.1% | 52.9% | +10000 |
| Justin Lower | $8,300 | 0.9% | 9.5% | 62.9% | +16000 |
| Justin Suh | $8,900 | 0.8% | 10.6% | 63.3% | +9000 |
| Robby Shelton | $9,000 | 0.8% | 9.8% | 60.8% | +9000 |
| Carl Yuan | $8,400 | 0.8% | 8.9% | 55.6% | +16000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | $8,600 | 0.8% | 6.1% | 54.2% | +10000 |
| Greyson Sigg | $9,100 | 0.8% | 9.3% | 61.2% | +9000 |
| Ryan Palmer | $8,900 | 0.7% | 8.6% | 51.6% | +10000 |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $9,200 | 0.7% | 8.4% | 60.8% | +7500 |
| Scott Piercy | $8,500 | 0.7% | 8.9% | 58.0% | +13000 |
| Brandon Wu | $8,500 | 0.7% | 9.0% | 55.7% | +12000 |
| Aaron Baddeley | $8,400 | 0.7% | 8.4% | 50.5% | +21000 |
| Kevin Kisner | $9,200 | 0.7% | 10.2% | 59.9% | +7500 |
| Mark Hubbard | $8,400 | 0.6% | 9.0% | 62.2% | +21000 |
| Chesson Hadley | $8,200 | 0.6% | 7.3% | 50.6% | +21000 |
| Benjamin Taylor | $8,600 | 0.6% | 7.2% | 54.3% | +12000 |
| Doug Ghim | $8,400 | 0.6% | 6.5% | 46.5% | +16000 |
| Nick Taylor | $9,700 | 0.6% | 7.4% | 57.6% | +7000 |
| Erik Barnes | $8,100 | 0.6% | 6.7% | 52.5% | +19000 |
| Ryan Armour | $7,600 | 0.5% | 7.0% | 52.9% | +25000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | $8,300 | 0.5% | 5.1% | 52.1% | +21000 |
| Adam Schenk | $8,000 | 0.5% | 6.1% | 48.4% | +23000 |
| MJ Daffue | $7,400 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 46.9% | +25000 |
| Russell Knox | $9,400 | 0.4% | 8.0% | 58.2% | +7500 |
| Adam Long | $8,200 | 0.4% | 6.6% | 55.1% | +25000 |
| Lanto Griffin | $9,300 | 0.4% | 6.3% | 46.5% | +5500 |
| Danny Willett | $8,600 | 0.4% | 7.3% | 55.1% | +18000 |
| Austin Cook | $7,800 | 0.4% | 5.5% | 52.8% | +35000 |
| Webb Simpson | $8,800 | 0.4% | 5.4% | 52.2% | +7500 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
At the top of the board, we have a trio of favorites in terms of the betting odds, but it's Matt Fitzpatrick who stands out above both Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth from a value standpoint. Fitzpatrick will be where I start my betting card before moving pretty far down the list and focusing more on top-10s and matchups in such a volatile field.
After Fitzpatrick, I have to go down to Matt Kuchar (+3700) to see some value. Kuchar's fourth in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting, and we know he has accuracy. He can get this one done, but I'm safeguarding with a top-10 as well.
The same goes for Scott Stallings (+5500). There's value on him outright as a good overall golfer, better than the recent form suggests.
Kurt Kitayama (+7000), Matthew NeSmith (+8500), and Beau Hossler (+7000) also deserve attention as viable long-shot darts for those interested in a dark horse winner.
Top-10 values in my model include Brendon Todd (+850), NeSmith (+650), Kitayama (+600), Stallings (+490), and Kuchar (+360). Carl Yuan at +1400 is a viable long-shot top-10 bet, as well.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Matt Fitzpatrick (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf betting odds: +1100) - I have two pretty substantial winners in the model this week. Fitzpatrick, though, paces the field. We have seen Fitzpatrick grow a ton lately, and even while he's gained a lot of distance (19th in the field in distance), he is still 53rd in accuracy. We saw Fitzpatrick finish 6th here last year, as well.
Viktor Hovland ($11,700 | +1100) - I don't see enough of a reason to balance out a lineup not to recommend Hovland in addition to Fitzpatrick. The win equity in the field is so flat behind these guys that we're not sacrificing a ton by missing out on the low-$10,000 range. Hovland ranks 6th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green among the field and is coming off of a win at the Hero World Challenge and a T18 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Others to Consider:
Tom Hoge ($11,400 | +1900) - Last year's champ and the field leader in strokes gained: approach.
Andrew Putnam ($11,000 | +2400) - 144th in distance but 12th in accuracy; a good fit this week; 23rd in approach.
Matt Kuchar ($10,400 | +3700) - Accurate off the tee and 4th in strokes gained: approach through putting.
Alex Smalley ($10,300 | +4600) - 14th in ball-striking and consistently stripes it off the tee, too.
Mid-Range Picks
Brendon Todd ($9,500 | +7000) - Todd is the right type of golfer to benefit from playing at this trio of courses. He was 16th here last year and ranks 8th in accuracy and 5th in putting (while 50th in approach). Todd's form is pretty up-and-down, but again, the field drops off anyway, so we'll need to embrace imperfections anyway.
Russell Knox ($9,400 | +7500) - Knox has three top-15s and four made cuts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am over the past five years, and he's primed for another good showing. Knox ranks 2nd in approach and 31st in driving accuracy among the field. Knox has gained strokes from approach play in 10 of his past 11 measured events.
Others to Consider:
Scott Stallings ($9,900 | +5500) - Irons are cold but the driver is there, and he has good form at Pebble Beach.
Taylor Moore ($9,700 | +7000) - 16th here last year; 28th in approach and 17th in putting.
Matthew NeSmith ($9,100 | +8500) - Ranks top-30 in both ball-striking stats; 65th, 16th, and 11th here the past three years.
Low-Salaried Picks
Robby Shelton ($9,000 | +9000) - Shelton is showing us some great iron play in his PGA Tour call-up after spending time on the Korn Ferry Tour last summer. He was T6 at the American Express and is 16th in strokes gained: tee to green over the past 50 rounds. The main issue is a lack of course history at this event.
Joseph Bramlett ($8,600 | +10000) - Bramlett ranks 16th in strokes gained: off the tee and 20th in strokes gained: approach. The putter is the real question mark. That being said, we've seen him make six straight cuts with two top-15 finishes despite not gaining strokes with the putter in any of them. We've seen his odds shorten from 120/1 to 100/1.
Others to Consider:
Callum Tarren ($8,700 | +9000) - The 12th-ranked ball-striker in the field; has been bet down from 130/1 to 90/1.
Mark Hubbard ($8,400 | +21000) - Super short off the tee but 6th in approach; 33rd here last year.
Justin Lower ($8,300 | +16000) - Putting the lights out and a plus in accuracy off the tee.
