Wimbledon Third Round Betting Guide: Friday 7/1/22
Perhaps the most revered of the four tennis grand slams, Wimbledon is finally here, and we have plenty of action across the draw that we can bet on at Tennis odds over the fortnight.
The third round gets underway on Friday morning. Which players offer the most value on Day 5?
John Isner (+150) over Jannik Sinner
At first glance, it might seem a little crazy to pick John Isner over a rising star like 20-year-old Jannik Sinner. Sinner has hovered around the top 10 all season and gone an impressive 27-8 in 2022.
The trouble is that he's yet to prove himself on grass courts, going just 4-6 on the surface in his young career. In fact, his Wimbledon wins in the first two rounds are his first-ever tour-level wins on grass, with his other two victories coming in qualifiers back in 2019.
Maybe it's just a small sample from a player who just hasn't gotten many grass reps, but this could still be an opening for Isner and his lethal serve.
Isner finally got over the hump and earned his first career win over Andy Murray on Wednesday, and he did so by bulldozing Murray with a whopping 36 aces. As noted the other day, the American owns a 24.5% ace rate that runs laps around nearly everyone else's mark on tour, including Sinner (7.1%).
The Italian has a strong return game, but Isner is a tough out for anyone when he's serving at his best.
According to Tennis Abstract, Sinner boasts a top-10 overall Elo rating, but his grass-specific rating is significantly worse than his rating on other surfaces. When that's factored in, his blended Elo is nearly 100 points below Isner's. That gives the American a 67.3% win probability in Tennis Abstract's forecast despite being the underdog.
Alison Riske-Amritraj (-154) over Marie Bouzkova
There don't appear to be any screaming values on the women's side, but we should feel fairly confident that Alison Riske-Amritraj will take care of business against Marie Bouzkova.
While 36th-ranked Riske-Amritraj is a run-of-the-mill singles player who's never cracked the top 15, grass is easily her best surface as she owns a 58.0% win percentage in tour-level grass-court matches. On the other hand, she's a sub-.500 player on both hard courts and clay.
Entering Wimbledon, she suffered opening-round losses at both Eastbourne and Birmingham, but she had an encouraging performance at Nottingham, making it to the final before losing to Beatriz Haddad Maia in three sets.
Bouzkova is the much lower-ranked player (66th), and she has just a 46% win percentage on grass. Additionally, she played only one grass-court match prior to the tournament, falling to Shelby Rogers at Eastbourne.
While Riske-Amritraj and Bouzkova are right next to one another in Tennis Abstact's overall Elo ratings, Riske-Amritraj's play on this surface earns her a 100-point advantage in her surface-blended score. She projects as the winner 64.1% of the time, which is better than the 60.6% implied odds she has as a -154 favorite.
