US Open First Round Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/30/22
The US Open is underway, and all eyes will be on Serena Williams in what's expected to be the last tournament of her career.
But we should see plenty of other storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than making some wagers on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The first round continues on Tuesday. Which matches have the most betting value?
Garbine Muguruza (-108) over Clara Tauson
The line on this matchup between Garbine Muguruza and Clara Tauson suggests that it will be a toss-up, but Muguruza is the far more accomplished player. Muguruza is a two-time Grand Slam winner, and while neither title came on hard courts, she's also an Australian Open finalist.
However, despite being ranked 10th in the world, Muguruza is just 9-14 this season, and she went just 1-2 in her summer hard court matches. While her recent form is an obvious concern, those hard-court losses came to top-25 players in Belinda Bencic and Elena Rybakina, and the win came against a quality opponent in Kaia Kanepi.
Just as importantly, it's not like Tauson has been crushing it this season, as she also has a losing WTA record (10-12) and is just 3-4 on hard courts this summer. Most of those hard-court matches came in lower-level events, and none of her three wins came against opponents ranked in the top 100.
Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Muguruza has a 180-point advantage over Tauson when factoring in the surface, giving her a 73.8% win probability.
Richard Gasquet (-137) over Taro Daniel
While Richard Gasquet is getting up there in tennis years, he should still be able to take care of business against Taro Daniel.
Overall, Gasquet has a decent 7-6 record on hard courts this year, and he's coming off a successful run to the quarterfinals at Winston-Salem that included a win over a top-30 player in Lorenzo Musetti.
On the other hand, Daniel is just 7-10 on the surface this season, and while he did well to make it through qualifying at multiple hard court events this summer, he ultimately only went 1-3 in the main draws.
Going by surface-blended Elo ratings, Gasquet projects to win this match 63.3% of the time. Considering his -137 odds shake out to 57.8% implied win odds, there's value in backing Gasquet on Tuesday.
Jelena Ostapenko (-128) over Qinwen Zheng
This is another matchup where we could be seeing some value from the favorite.
Jelena Ostapenko went just 2-2 in her hard court tune-up matches this summer, but she had an incredible run on the surface in February, reaching the semis at St. Petersburg and Qatar while getting all the way to the final at Dubai.
A newcomer on the scene, 19-year-old Qinwen Zheng has made some noise in 2022, most notably making it to the round of 16 at the French Open before bowing out to eventual champion Iga Swiatek. In her lead-up to the US Open, she made it to the quarterfinals at Toronto, as well.
Still, given Ostapenko's success this season and Zheng's relative inexperience on WTA-level hard court events, this looks like a spot to side with the former.
In fact, Ostapenko has a top-20 surface-blended Elo rating, giving her a 66.5% chance of winning. With her implied odds at just 56.1%, we're getting nice value on the former French Open champion.
