MLB

5 MLB Bounce-Back Candidates Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers

Ari Ross  —  @aross50 Dec 15th, 2016
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Joe Mauer, 1B, Minnesota Twins

LD%: 26.8% | Hard%: 31.3% | BABIP: .301 | Expected BABIP: .342 | ISO: .128 | Expected ISO: .165

Somehow, Joe Mauer posted a .301 BABIP but was still unlucky. It makes sense, though, considering his 31.3% hard-hit rate and 26.8% line-drive percentage, both of which were above the league average.

Mauer hit .261/.363/.389 with .327 wOBA and 102 wRC+ for the Minnesota Twins. He has been in a steady decline for the past few years, reaching the age of 33 early on in the 2016 season, but Mauer certainly isn't finished. It was only three years ago where he posted 5.2 fWAR, whereas he has a total of 2.8 fWAR over the past three seasons.

With peripherals still above the league average, Mauer probably has another decent season left in him. His expected ISO in 2016 was almost 30 percentage points higher than his actual ISO, while his BABIP was 41 percentage points lower than expected. Mauer's BABIP won't return to 2013 levels -- when it reached .383 -- but a 10- to 20-point increase is realistic.

Steamer projects a 19-point increase to .320, and Steamer forecasts Mauer to hit .273/.360/.401 with a .329 wOBA and 104 wRC+, proving the Twins' first baseman is certainly not done yet.

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