Re-Drafting the 2007 MLB Draft Using Advanced Analytics
Busts
Who takes the biggest fall of the first round?
| Player | Position | WAR | Actual Pick | Re-Draft Pick | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Vitters | 3B | -1.5 | 3 | 42 | 39 |
| Matt LaPorta | 1B | -1.4 | 7 | 41 | 34 |
| Beau Mills | 1B | N/A | 13 | 44 | 31 |
Josh Vitters has to be the biggest disappointment of the draft class. The Chicago Cubs selected him with the third overall pick, but have received nothing in terms of positive production from the California native. In 36 games and 99 at-bats, Vitters has just 12 hits and has been out of the majors since 2012.
For a player selected just four picks later, Matt LaPorta has been almost as disappointing. He appeared in 291 MLB contests, but he produced just 31 homers and 120 RBI in that span of games. LaPorta hasn't played in the minors since 2014.
Drafted straight out of high school, Beau Mills never once stepped foot on an MLB diamond. He played six seasons in the minors, but failed to go beyond two different Triple-A stints.
