Which MLB Teams Do Our Models Like Less Than Vegas Does?
San Francisco Giants
Projected Wins By Our Models: 76
2018 Over/Under: 81.5
The Giants were already a prime bounceback candidate before they added Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria in the offseason, but is Vegas taking things too far?
On the one hand, this was a team that was hit hard by injuries in 2017, as Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Belt and Mark Melancon (among others) all missed significant time. An already solid core returns for 2018 and has been further solidified by the acquisition of veterans like McCutchen, Longoria, Tony Watson and Austin Jackson.
On the other hand, this was still a team with a 66-96 BaseRuns record and one that has some remaining issues, most notably in its pitching staff.
Despite ranking sixth on the team in innings pitched with 111, Bumgarner was actually second behind Jeff Samardzija for the team lead in fWAR (1.7), and the rotation looks to be top-heavy again.
Johnny Cueto struggled with blisters and posted his highest ERA since 2008 and worst FIP since 2009, and he has Ty Blach (4.94 xFIP in 180.2 career innings) and Chris Stratton (4.62 in 68.2) behind him in the rotation.
Cueto was a 5.5 fWAR pitcher in 2016, so it is hardly out of the question he bounces back and reduces the margin for error for the guys behind him, but there are a lot of questions that need to be answered before we can be super confident this will be a winning team.
