Which MLB Teams Do Our Models Like More Than Vegas Does?

Miami Marlins

Projected Wins By Our Models: 70

2018 Over/Under: 64.5

It’s safe to say the Marlins are going to struggle this season. They are projected to win the fewest games by both our models and the Vegas totals. As mentioned, though, it is hard for a conservative projection model to peg a team to be as bad as their total of 64.5 reflects.

Some of this number seems to be a reflection of public negativity towards the franchise, which had another one of its patented firesales this offseason, unloading the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. It’s also a team that allowed the sixth-most runs in baseball last year with a rotation coming back that again looks bereft of talent.

In short, the public’s pessimism is hardly unfounded.

That said, it is really hard for a major league team to lose 98 games in a season. A team with only replacement level players would be expected to lose about 114 games, meaning Miami would have to scrape together 17 wins above replacement cumulatively to hit the over. This is an insanely low bar to climb, even for a team like the Marlins.