Dynasty Fantasy Baseball: 10 Players to Buy Before Opening Day
Jonathan Villar, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Underperformance is what killed Jonathan Villar last year, too. But he has fallen even further than Piscotty, sitting 152nd in FantasyPros' rankings, down from a 55th-place ranking on Cockcroft's list entering 2017. While Villar's not guaranteed playing time, the upside he previously possessed is still there.
Like Polanco, Villar also dealt with an injury in 2017. He spent time on the disabled list with a back injury, and he never seemed to be the same player he was during his 2016 breakout.
| Villar's Past 2 Seasons | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate | Hard-Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 35.1% |
| 2017 Pre-Injury | 30.6% | 8.9% | 32.7% |
| 2017 Post-Injury | 29.8% | 4.3% | 33.9% |
The decrease in his walk rate hurts both his ability to find playing time and get steals. A revival in that is necessary, especially if he's going to keep striking out so often. Thankfully, things have been much better in that department this spring.
Here's a comparison of Villar's plate-discipline numbers each of the past three springs.
| Villar in Spring | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25.8% | 4.8% |
| 2017 | 31.3% | 12.5% |
| 2018 | 18.5% | 13.0% |
Both the strikeout rate and walk rate are much better than what he had prior to his coming out party, and his strikeout rate is almost 13 percentage points lower than it was last year. This will be Villar's age-27 season, so improvements certainly aren't out of the question.
Villar isn't likely to regain his spot at the top of the order, and he could lose his job to Eric Sogard or Hernan Perez if he struggles again. So there's risk in acquiring Villar. But it's not often that you can get a guy with 60-steal upside for this cheap, so conduct a price check and see if it's worth the downsides.
