Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 National League Cy Young Award

Jake Arrieta, Philadelphia Phillies

Odds: 40/1

When Jake Arrieta signed with the Phillies in the middle of spring training, the worry was why his former team, the Chicago Cubs, would go out of their way to sign Yu Darvish to a bigger contract rather than re-sign Arrieta, who they already knew. The Phils were hoping Chicago's oversight would be their gain, allowing them get a solid number-two starter to pair with Nola.

So far, Arrieta has done exactly what the Phillies hoped he'd do. Through 11 starts, he has an fWAR of 1.5 that is tied for 10th in the National League, with a 2.66 ERA that is also 10th-best and a FIP of 3.24.

There is concern in some circles that Arrieta isn't striking out guys the way he once was. He's only fanned 17.2% of hitters this season, a far cry from the 23.1% mark of last year, but he's actually throwing a bit harder this season, averaging 92.8 miles per hour (he averaged 92.1 miles per hour last season, according to Fangraphs), and has become one of the premier ground-ball pitchers, with a ground ball rate of 56.3% that is third-highest in baseball. He's allowed 0.42 home runs per nine innings this season, third-lowest in the NL, and has a hard-hit rate of just 25.0% that is also third-lowest.

He's not likely to win the Cy Young this season, but his inclusion in this list certainly separates him from the other free agent starters who were on the market last year, most of whom are struggling in 2018.