MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/5/18

Jordan Sharp  —  @TehSharp Jul 5th, 2018
Alex Bregman is red-hot and has a superb matchup with Carlos Rodon. Per our models, which other prop bets should you target?

Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.

Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.

Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

Jeremy Hellickson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Jeremy Hellickson has been great this season for the Washington Nationals, and he is set to face one of the more strikeout-happy rosters in baseball.

The Miami Marlins rank 12th in the league with a 23.0% strikeout rate this season, and with Hellickson sporting a career-best 20.3% strikeout rate in 2018, our models project him for 5.13 punchouts.

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

Alex Bregman OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+115)

Our models like Alex Bregman more than any other hitter on the slate, and for good reason. The Houston Astros are up against southpaw Carlos Rodon, and Bregman has owned left-handed pitching this season.

Bregman is sporting a .416 wOBA and .283 isolated power in 117 plate appearances against lefties, and with right-handers posting a career .341 wOBA against Rodon, our models project Bregman for 3.16 runs, hits, and RBIs.

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

Brandon Belt UNDER 2 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-125)

Our lone prop loss on Tuesday was Brandon Belt failing to collect three combined runs, hits, and RBIs, but our models are leaning in the other direction with Belt's prop odds Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals and Luke Weaver.

Even though Weaver is coming off his worst start of the year, he has been solid on the road. Weaver has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five road starts, and tonight our models think he and the Redbirds' bullpen can limit Belt to 1.75 total runs, hits, and RBIs.