DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 8/8/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on DraftKings' main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitchers
Luis Severino ($11,900 on DraftKings): There's an argument to be made for Clayton Kershaw ($12,800) at the top of tonight's pitching pool, but Severino's matchup is just flat-out better. His New York Yankees are the biggest favorite (-254) of the night and their opponent, the Chicago White Sox, owns the second-lowest implied total on the main slate -- and the reasoning is simple. While Severino's struggled of late, he still has a 3.33 SIERA and 27.6% strikeout rate on the season. The White Sox, on the other hand, have poor numbers all around. Their offense's .305 wOBA is 23rd in the Majors, and against righties, they're 22nd with the third-worst strikeout rate (25.6%) in the split. Expect Severino to get back on track and outscore Kershaw this evening.
Mike Clevinger ($9,500): Last night, things didn't go perfectly to plan for Carlos Carrasco, but he still ended the night with eight strikeouts in a losing effort to the Minnesota Twins. So don't be scared off from using the Cleveland Indians' Clevinger in the same matchup on Wednesday. Clevinger comes in with the added benefit of having not yet faced the Twins this year, and he's having a great season, with a 24.3% strikeout rate, 3.48 ERA and 3.90 xFIP. He has been especially good since July 1, sporting a 29.6% strikeout rate and 3.61 xFIP. The lowly Twins are in an exploitable spot, too, as they rank 24th in wRC+ against righties -- after accounting for their recent trades -- and enter the matchup having struck out 29.3% of the time so far this month in that split.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Jhoulys Chacin ($7,500): Much like with Clevinger and the Twins, it's back to the well, targeting the San Diego Padres with tonight's starter for the Milwaukee Brewers, Jhoulys Chacin. Last night, Chase Anderson was shellacked to the tune of 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings, but Chacin has been a bit better than Anderson, especially at home. Now, a 4.18 xFIP and 23.2% strikeout rate at Miller Park aren't ace material, however, this play's more about the Padres than anything. With San Diego leading the league in strikeout rate (25.8%) versus right-handed pitching, Chacin should tap into the top of his strikeout potential while also getting the benefit of a hefty -187 moneyline in his home park.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Francisco Lindor ($5,800): Both Lindor and ball-bashing mate Jose Ramirez ($6,000) come in near the top of all hitters' salaries tonight, but they -- especially Lindor -- are well worth it. On Wednesday, they draw righty Jake Odorizzi, who is a shell of what he once was, with a 4.73 xFIP on a 48.6% fly-ball rate, 28.0% ground-ball rate and 36.1% hard-hit rate. Lefties alone have a 5.12 xFIP and 50.0% fly-ball rate against him, so the switch-hitting Lindor should have no trouble producing. He has a .437 wOBA, 42.3% hard-hit rate and 33.0% fly-ball rate from the left side this season.
Giancarlo Stanton ($5,100): Stanton hasn't been having his best year against righties, but he's heating up of late. His season-long isolated power (ISO; .195) and fly-ball rate (35.0%) have inched closer to his career marks, as he's sporting a .255 ISO and 38.5% fly-ball rate since July. Lucky him, he should be able to improve on that against Chicago White Sox starter Lucas Giolito. The right-hander has a slate-worst 5.80 SIERA and has allowed righties a 38.1% fly-ball rate and 10 home runs this season. If you prefer to go with a lefty, though, switch-hitter Aaron Hicks ($4,900) could also do some damage from his spot in the Yankee lineup.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,900): With today's Coors Field contest absent from the main slate, it's the Chicago Cubs who draw top honors with a 5.29 implied total against Heath Fillmyer and the Kansas City Royals. You'll want to get exposure to this lineup, and that's especially the case if you want to save a little salary from top to bottom. At the top, Rizzo is underpriced given his recent success. Since moving to leadoff on July 13, the lefty slugger boasts a .445 wOBA, .261 ISO, 41.3% hard-hit rate and 40.0% fly-ball rate. And against righties like Fillmyer, those numbers -- .518, .344, 44.2% and 48.1% -- are just out of control.
Value Hitters
Gleyber Torres ($4,400): If you couldn't tell already, you should be targeting Lucas Giolito tonight -- and the handedness of the batter doesn't matter much. But for a guy like Torres, that's not a problem either way, as the young second baseman's already managed a .245 ISO and 46.4% fly-ball rate without the platoon advantage. And if you're going all out on the Yanks, you can also give a look to Greg Bird ($3,800) and his 53.0% fly-ball rate against righties.
Randal Grichuk ($3,900): The Yankees and Boston Red Sox have the power bats we like to see knock the ball out of the park, but the Toronto Blue Jays' hitters have some appeal against lefty Brian Johnson tonight. Similar to Rizzo, Grichuk has been wildly successful (.387 wOBA) in the leadoff role. The spot in the order is nice, but Grichuk's overall success against lefties is what you're targeting. Oddly enough, Grichuk's .138 ISO and 26.2% hard-hit rate against lefties are low, but his fly-ball rate sits at 40.0%, while his career .212 ISO and 36.1% hard-hit rate scream "regression" for his power numbers in 2018. Throw in Johnson's 38.6% fly-ball rate to righties, and you got yourself a high-upside bat at low ownership.
David Bote ($3,700): Unlike Rizzo, Bote doesn't have the gaudy numbers to back him up, but his matchup and spot in the order are enough to lock him in as a value bat. On the year, Fillmyer has just over 30 Major League innings under his belt, and during that time he's posted a 5.14 SIERA. His 15.4% strikeout rate and 5.58 xFIP at Triple-A are encouraging for opposing batters, as well. And speaking of numbers from the minors (where Bote spent most of this season), Bote had a .226 ISO and 38.4% fly-ball rate there before his call-up. If he hits fifth again, he's a great way of filling out your second or third base spot.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
