DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 4/1/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitchers
Matt Strahm ($9,200 on DraftKings): Strahm has just 118 innings in the Majors, but in that small sample, he has been very good. He has an elite 28.2 percent strikeout rate with a sparkling 2.05 ERA. However, his 8.6 percent walk rate could use some work. Now, it is worth noting that he has made only five starts and the majority of his work has been out of the bullpen. But he owns a 3.36 SIERA and is the slate's number-three hurler, per our models, for his matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Julio Urias ($8,700): Similar to Strahm, Urias has limited action in the Majors -- just 104.1 innings. However, his have come primarily has a starter. He hasn't had huge success striking out people at the big-league level with just a 22.6 percent strikeout rate. However, in Triple-A in 2017, he had a 26.0 percent strikeout rate and an even better 29.2 percent strikeout rate in 2016. So there is some strikeout potential here. He's taking on a San Francisco Giants team that struck out at a 26.5 percent clip in their first series of 2019, and he's the slate's top arm going by our projections.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Brad Peacock ($7,900): In 2018, Peacock was primarily a reliever, but he was dominant in that role with an incredible 35.6 percent strikeout rate. He did struggle a bit with the long-ball, giving up a 1.52 homers per nine, but that can be inflated in a relief role. In 2017, when he worked mostly as a starter, his strikeout ability was just as apparent as he notched a 29.1 percent strikeout rate. He can miss bats, and our projections have him slotted between the two aforementioned guys as the number-two pitcher on this slate.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
J.D. Martinez ($5,300): The Boston Red Sox visit the Oakland Athletics this evening, and Boston will see Aaron Brooks -- a pitcher who hasn't started in the Majors since 2015. He was pretty terrible back then, giving up an astonishing .406 weighted on-base average (wOBA) to right-handed hitters as well as a .545 slugging percentage (SLG). Martinez has had plenty of success against right-handed pitching throughout his career as he's put up a .369 wOBA and a .524 SLG in the split. While the Athletics' park isn't an ideal hitting environment, it is tough to contain Martinez's power, and he's a top bat on this night.
Alex Bregman ($5,000): Another pitcher we haven't seen in the Majors in a while is Drew Smyly. Last starting in 2016, he struggled a bit with a 4.51 xFIP, though he's been able to get swings and misses for most of his career. In 2016, 49.3 percent fly-ball rate led to an unflattering 12.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. This is a great recipe for Bregman, who absolutely smashed left-handed pitching last season to the tune of a .409 wOBA and .253 isolated power (ISO).
Ronald Acuna ($4,700): As a rookie in 2018, Acuna was pretty darn good. He had a .293 average and 9.2 percent walk rate, although his 25.3 percent strikeout rate could be better. He smashed right-handed pitching, posting a .377 wOBA and .246 ISO in the split. He brings plenty of power to the table as the Atlanta Braves host the Chicago Cubs. Opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks was solid last year, but he doesn't generate many punchouts, producing a meager 19.8 percent strikeout rate.
Value Hitters
Justin Turner ($4,200): In a limited role in 2018 -- mostly in the bullpen -- Drew Pomeranz struggled. He had a huge issue with walks (5.35 per nine) and also struggled a bit with home runs, giving up a 1.46 per nine. In addition, Pomeranz gave up a troublesome 24.0 percent line-drive rate, which was certainly a factor in his 5.10 SIERA. Against left-handed pitching in 2018, Turner put up elite numbers -- .433 wOBA and .244 ISO. In a premium matchup against Pomeranz, he could have a monster game.
Domingo Santana ($4,000): Santana has been pretty splits-neutral throughout his career. He has put up a .353 wOBA and .206 ISO against left-handed pitching and a strikingly similar .349 wOBA and .200 ISO against right-handers. The Angels will start with Chris Stratton, a pitcher who gave up a 41.8 percent hard-hit rate and 90.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity last season. After a great spring, Santana has three jacks and a 44.4% hard-hit rate so far this season.
Peter Alonso ($3,900): Alonso has just 14 plate appearances in the Majors, so while we can't pull any real conclusions from that, he has smashed to start. In Triple-A in 2018, Alonso showed plenty of power as indicated by a .326 ISO and 21 home runs in 301 plate appearances. Tonight he's going to take on Miami Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith. Smith gave up a 37.1 percent hard-hit rate in 2018 along with a 50.8 percent fly-ball rate and 203-foot average batted-ball distance. While the home park for Smith is a benefit in Miami, Alonso can still get a hold of one.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
