5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/2/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Ryan McMahon, 2B, Colorado Rockies ($3,000)
The Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros have a massive 13-run over/under in tonight's Coors Field matchup, and with Houston giving Jose Urquidy his first major league start, the favored Rockies are showing an absurd 6.87-run implied total.
Urquidy has pitched only 43 2/3 innings at even the Triple-A level, and while he's shown some serious potential and strikeout upside, he gave up 47.4% fly-balls in Triple-A, which is an obvious concern at Coors.
McMahon isn't the most exciting hitter, and even at home he's not always in play. A 6.7-run implied total is special, though, and even more than usual today is a day that you want cheap exposure to the Rockies.
That's not to say McMahon is terrible, however, as he has managed a career .356 wOBA and .179 ISO hitting in his hitter-friendly home digs.
Tony Wolters, C, Colorado Rockies ($2,600)
The inclusion of Tony Wolters here should really illustrate just how good this spot is.
Wolters manages to be a poor enough hitter that he is consistently priced in the $2,000s at Coors Field, but he rarely feels under-priced -- even with the platoon advantage.
His career numbers at home against righties aren't all egregious, though, as his .336 wOBA in the split is a fine mark for someone in the mid-$2,000's. That just-passable mark combines with a hugely inflated potential for runs scored and RBI to give him some intriguing upside tonight.
Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels ($2,900)
Sure, Pujols has taken an obvious step back in recent years, but he can still offer plenty of power upside in the right spot. And a matchup in Texas against Rangers lefty Mike Minor is very much a "right spot".
Minor has not been nearly as good as his 2.40 ERA suggests this year -- pairing that ERA with a career-worst 4.32 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's also managed a 4.59 xFIP while getting tagged for a 37.4% hard-hit rate and 43.4% fly-ball rate against right-handed bats since 2018.
The 39-year-old Pujols has still put up 37.4% hard-hits and 51.8% fly-balls against left-handed pitching in 2019, and even in the twilight of his career, he's managed a .190 ISO in the split since 2016. Globe Life Park has the second-most hitter-friendly park factor on today's slate, and the 91-degree heat gives hitters a nice boost.
David Fletcher, SS, Los Angeles Angels ($2,600)
Another Angel with the platoon advantage tonight, Fletcher has followed a disappointing 2018 season (.297 wOBA and .088 ISO in the majors) with a more promising .323 wOBA so far in 2019.
That uptick in production has come on some seriously improved contact, dropping his soft-hit rate from 21.6% to 16.7% while raising his hard-hit rate from 29.0% to 33.9%.
He's making especially strong contact against left-handed hurlers this season, with 41.5% hard-hits and 9.6% soft-hits -- making his .228 BABIP likely unsustainable. His contact should be converting into better production than we have seen so far, so regression should hit and improve Fletcher's output moving forward.
Eric Thames, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($3,000)
No stranger to this article, Thames' boom-or-bust fantasy potential is once again worth getting some exposure to on Tuesday.
He's a complete non-factor against southpaws, and he is liable to be pinch-hit for if the Cincinnati Reds come in with a left-handed reliever, but he starts the game in a terrific spot against righty Tanner Roark.
Thames has a massive .374 wOBA and .279 ISO against righties since returning to the majors in 2017, and Roark has an ugly 5.00 xFIP against left-handed bats in that same time.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
