5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/25/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Mark Canha, 1B, Oakland Athletics ($2,900)
The Oakland Athletics are one of the top offenses available on this slate thanks to a dreamy matchup with Texas Rangers righty Ariel Jurado.
Jurado has shown improvement in some areas since his 2018 rookie campaign when he only managed a 5.28 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). His 4.95 SIERA in 2019 isn't a ton better though, and it brings his career-average to an ugly 5.10 over 33 games.
Mark Canha is also having his best season in the majors, and it's been a far more impressive one than Jurado's. Across 254 plate appearances, Canha is flexing a .378 wOBA and .282 ISO. He's faring well against pitchers of either handedness, but his best work does come against righties, where he jumps to a .383 wOBA and .295 ISO.
Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics ($3,000)
Same-sided matchups haven't done much to bolster Ariel Jurado's numbers in 2019, and right-handed hitters have smacked him for a .366 wOBA on a 40.0% hard-hit and 13.9% soft-hit rate so far.
Khris Davis is having an uncharacteristically poor season from the dish. After posting wOBAs of .361 and .365 as well as ISOs of .281 and .302 in the last two seasons, he's only managed a .294 wOBA and .171 ISO in 2019.
His contact hasn't been a whole lot worse though, with a 45.0% hard-hit and 10.9% soft-hit rate, and a 36.7% fly-ball rate that is a definite decline but still not worryingly low. With a track record of success that includes a .372 wOBA and .304 ISO against right-handed pitching between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, it's not time to quit on Davis just yet. This is a great spot for him to bounce back some, and his upside is easy to like on a short six-game slate.
Jordan Luplow, OF, Cleveland Indians ($2,800)
The Cleveland Indians are another team with a great pitching matchup, taking on southpaw Mike Montgomery and the Kansas City Royals.
The 30-year-old Montgomery has opened 2019 with a career-worst 5.23 SIERA across 21 games, and his career-low 14.2% strikeout rate eclipses his 9.7% walk rate by only 4.5% -- the smallest gap of his career. To top things off, his 42.6% hard-hit rate is 9.8 percentage points higher than he's ever allowed before, while his 9.9% soft-hit rate is a career-low by 4.3 percentage points.
Jordan Luplow has been a regular source of value against southpaws lately, and in 111 plate appearances in that split in 2019 he has turned a 41.8% hard-hit rate, 41.8% fly-ball rate and 10.8% soft-hit rate into a massive .445 wOBA and .372 ISO.
That level of production may not be sustainable for a guy with a career .315 wOBA, but he does have a powerful .206 ISO on his career, and getting the platoon advantage against Montgomery should keep him productive.
Roberto Perez, C, Cleveland Indians ($2,700)
Mike Montgomery has been particularly poor against right-handed bats in 2019, with a 4.90 xFIP compared to a 4.44 against left-handed bats. His walk rate has also climbed to 12.2% in the split.
These pronounced splits have been consistent over his whole major league career, with a 4.39 xFIP against right-handed bats versus a 3.81 against lefties.
Roberto Perez doesn't need the platoon advantage to produce, with a .215 ISO against righties this season, but it certainly doesn't hurt. He's up to a .372 wOBA and .272 ISO against southpaws in 2019, which has come on a massive 55.6% hard-hit rate.
Delino DeShields, OF, Texas Rangers ($2,400)
On the other side of the Rangers versus Athletics matchup, Oakland southpaw Brett Anderson doesn't exactly make for a scary matchup either.
Anderson's 5.34 SIERA is on pace to be a career-worst, and this is the third time in the last four years he has posted a SIERA worse than 4.80. He's sporting a 5.00 xFIP while getting tagged for 42.2% hard-hits against right-handed bats.
Delino DeShields Jr. isn't an overly exciting hitter, but he does have a solid .344 wOBA against southpaws this season, which comes on a career-high 36.2% hard-hit rate and career-low 10.6% soft-hit rate in the split.
He also offers a bit of stolen base upside as well, with 12 steals across 225 plate appearances at the big league level in 2019.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
