MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/27/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:06 p.m. EST.
Pitchers
Justin Verlander ($12,000) is in his own tier tonight. He always brings an elite floor/ceiling combination to the table, and that's particularly true tonight as he takes on a Texas Rangers team that had the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.4%) in 2019.
After JV, there's a handful of guys who have some appeal. I like Brandon Woodruff ($8,000) in a date with the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates, and I'm also into Luis Castillo ($8,800) against the Washington Nationals.
If you want to pay down, you can do worse than Yonny Chirinos ($6,700) at home versus the Seattle Mariners, a team that had the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) a year ago.
Stacks
Jordan Yamamoto gave up a 48.0% hard-hit rate and 43.1% fly-ball rate across 78 2/3 innings last season. That's exactly what we want to stack against, and it makes the Atlanta Braves the night's top stack in my eyes. While Ronald Acuna ($4,100) is priced up, Freddie Freeman ($3,500) isn't too expensive. Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and Marcell Ozuna ($3,200) are also priced modestly, and Dansby Swanson ($2,400) is a cheap stick who is hitting in a decent spot in the order (sixth).
Kevin Gausman can get punchouts, but he also surrendered a 40.0% hard-hit rate last year, putting the Los Angeles Dodgers on the stacking radar. I love Justin Turner ($3,200) at his salary. Corey Seager ($2,600), Will Smith ($3,000) and Gavin Lux ($2,100) are a fun 6-7-8 stack on the cheap. Of course, the top of the Dodgers' lineup is incredibly potent if you have the coin.
The New York Yankees get a friendly home matchup with Jon Lester, who allowed a 38.6% hard-hit rate last year and hasn't posted a swinging-strike rate better than 9.0% in either of the past two seasons. The Yanks have plenty of dudes who maul lefties, and everyone in their lineup will hit from the right side. Pay up for the studs if you can, but if you need lower-cost bats, you can look to Luke Voit ($2,500) and Gary Sanchez ($3,000).
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
