MLB Sim Sports Picks for 7/4/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:06 p.m. EST.
Pitchers
This is one ugly pitching slate, but there are two high-priced arms I like, though neither are amazing options.
A.J. Puk ($9,200) is the top-priced hurler and gets a boost from his matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. Puk has generated punchouts at the minor-league level and had a 27.7% strikeout rate last season in a small sample of 11 1/3 MLB frames out of the 'pen.
Julio Urias ($8,300) draws a home date with the Miami Marlins. Miami's offense should be better in 2020 than it was a year ago, but they are still a matchup we want to target. While Urias has lost some of the immense shine he had as an elite prospect a few years back, he's still just 23 and had a 26.1% strikeout rate and 13.7% swinging-strike rate across 79 2/3 innings last season. Given the $900 difference between his salary and Puk's, Urias is my top pick on the bump.
Stacks
I love the Oakland Athletics' offense in a smash spot versus Kohl Stewart, the owner of a 5.21 career SIERA. Matt Chapman ($3,000), Matt Olson ($3,400) and Khris Davis ($3,100) are hitting 3-4-5 and are priced modestly. Marcus Semien ($3,400) and Ramon Laureano ($2,700) are atop the order, and Stephen Piscotty ($2,100) is a great value target from the seven spot.
Another stack to zero in on is the Los Angeles Dodgers against Pablo Lopez, who finished 2019 with a meh 20.3% strikeout rate. Outside of Cody Bellinger ($4,100) and Joc Pederson ($3,800), LA isn't too expensive. Mookie Betts ($3,400), Justin Turner ($3,200) and Max Muncy ($3,300) are hitting second, third and fifth, respectively. Bottom-of-the-order sticks Will Smith ($2,800), Corey Seager ($2,600) and A.J. Pollock ($2,500) are all solid point-per-dollar options, too.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
