MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/14/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5 (-115): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The pitching matchup in this one pits David Peterson against Tyler Glasnow. I'll give you one guess which offense we project to carry us toward the over.
Yes, it's the Tampa Bay Rays.
While Tampa Bay's offense has started slowly this season, Peterson presents a plum matchup for them. The Rays were sixth in wOBA against lefties in 2020 (.343) and have a lot of the same lineup this year, including righties like Michael Brosseau, Yandy Diaz, Willy Adames, Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot -- all of whom fare better with the platoon advantage.
Peterson has been good in this season's small sample, pitching to a 3.48 SIERA over 26 innings, but he struggled to a 5.26 SIERA in 49 2/3 frames a year ago.
As for Glasnow, he's been dominant thus far in 2021, sporting a 2.68 SIERA and 39.5% strikeout rate. The New York Mets should have a tough time, but with our model projecting the Rays for 4.45 runs, we don't need too much from New York to get us to the over.
In all, we forecast a 4.45-3.95 win for Tampa Bay. That's 8.4 total runs, and we have the over hitting 68.2% of the time.
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Moneyline (+176): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Arizona +1.5 (+104): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Betting against Max Scherzer never feels good, but our algorithm is on the Arizona Diamondbacks today in their date with the Washington Nationals.
Scherzer is still an excellent pitcher, and after showing a few cracks in his armor in 2020, he's quieted any concerns by ripping off a 35.5% strikeout rate and 2.54 SIERA across his initial 46 1/3 innings this season. But his hard-contact issues remain as he's allowing a 35.3% hard-hit rate and a career-worst 51.0% fly-ball rate, which has led to him giving up 1.55 dingers per nine innings.
After Scherzer, Washington will have to turn to a bullpen that holds the second-worst SIERA (4.37).
Arizona is countering with Riley Smith. In 44 1/3 career innings, Smith owns a 4.68 SIERA, 16.5% strikeout rate and 5.8% swinging-strike rate. He's not good. But the matchup isn't too bad for him as Washington carries just a .294 wOBA against righties this year, although Juan Soto's recent return should give their lineup a jolt.
One thing to note is that the D-Backs have a travel advantage. While both teams played yesterday, Arizona was at home last night, while Washington had to travel across the country after their Thursday afternoon tilt.
We like both teams to put up some runs and project Washington to win a close one, 4.99-4.89. There's good value on the D-Backs to cover as 1.5-run underdogs, something our model projects them to do 63.0% of the time, rating it a three-star wager. We also like their win odds better than the 36.2% implied odds from the +176 moneyline, so taking Arizona to win is another three-star bet.
