FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 5/28/21
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salaried Play
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
At Detroit Tigers
FanDuel Salary: $12,200
Buckle up -- we could see an absurd score tonight from Gerrit Cole.
Cole takes aim at a Detroit Tigers offense that stinks -- it's truly putrid. They are one of the worst in terms of team wOBA (.288), and they have the league's worst strikeout rate at 28.8%. Ouch.
As for Cole, he's posted 45-plus FanDuel points in seven out of 10 starts. He's got a 38.5% strikeout rate and 15.5% swinging-strike rate. He should go nuts tonight.
Cole tops our projections by almost 10 FanDuel points, and while his draft percentage will be sky-high -- as long as rain isn't an issue in Detroit -- he's chalk worth swallowing.
Mid-Salaried Play
Martin Perez, Boston Red Sox
Vs. Miami Marlins
FanDuel Salary: $8,400
With the incredible arms in the Miami Marlins' staff, could you imagine how tough they would be if they had any kind of decent hitting?
This Miami offense is truly dreadful. They have the fifth-highest strikeout rate (26.6%), and their .291 wOBA is bottom of the basement. Yikes. We can take advantage of that today with Martin Perez.
Perez owns a 22.2% strikeout rate and 4.36 SIERA. Those aren't great numbers, but the matchup helps.
In truth, Cole is in such a money spot, it's a massive risk to use anyone other than him. And if you want to fade Cole, Walker Buehler ($11,000) is a quality option at home against the San Francisco Giants. But if you're desperate to save salary on the bump, Perez is worth a look.
Low-Salaried Play
Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox
Vs. Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
The Baltimore Orioles' offense has not been great this season. They boast a middling strikeout rate (23.3%), .149 isolated power (ISO) and .300 wOBA.
Keuchel doesn't offer a ton of upside due to a lack of strikeouts -- which is definitely a problem with Cole and Buehler in good spots -- but the floor should be solid. And maybe he'll get a few more punchouts given the friendly matchup.
The lefty has a 60.6% ground-ball rate, and he's a -235 moneyline favorite, putting Keuchel in a dope spot for a win and quality start.
As I said with Perez, it's a risk to fade Cole's ceiling on this slate, but on a day when rain figures to wreak havoc with the slate, Keuchel is at least worth having on the radar -- although weather is an issue for his game, too.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
