MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/18/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 9.5 (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
With Trevor Bauer starting for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the over might seem like a scary play, but that's the direction our model leans today. Part of that is due to Bauer not being himself of late, and some of it is due to us projecting the Dodgers to light up Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Caleb Smith.
Over his last three starts, Bauer has allowed a combined 10 earned runs in 19 innings. He's permitted exactly four walks in three of his last five outings and is conceding a .377 wOBA in 12 1/2 frames in June. Bauer is certainly capable of righting the ship in a hurry, but our algorithm has Arizona plating 4.37 runs tonight.
As for Smith, he's been a starter and reliever this season and has pitched to a respectable 4.05 SIERA and 27.1% strikeout rate overall. But as a starter, Smith hasn't been nearly as effective, surrendering 10 earned runs over 17 1/3 innings. He's got a tall task ahead of him tonight against the Dodgers, and we project LA for 6.28 runs.
In all, we forecast a total of 10.65 runs in this one and have the over hitting 57.4% of the time.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (-132): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Both oddsmakers and our model like the San Francisco Giants to beat the Philadelphia Phillies, but our model likes the Giants a little more than oddsmakers do.
The Phillies are starting Vince Velasquez while the Giants counter with Johnny Cueto.
Velasquez is having another Velasquez-type season. The dude gets whiffs, generating a 27.1% strikeout rate, but he's walking 12.9% of hitters while giving up 1.85 dingers per nine. He's got a tough matchup today versus a Giants offense that sits sixth in wOBA (.326), including a .340 wOBA at home.
Cueto has just a 4.40 SIERA this season, but he's limiting hard contact (25.6% hard-hit rate) and has a 10.3% swinging-strike rate that hints at some positive regression for his 18.2% strikeout rate. Facing a Phillies team that owns a mere .298 wOBA away from home, Cueto is in a nice spot.
The -132 price on the moneyline implies win odds of 56.9%. Our model gives San Fran win odds of 62.3%. There's value in taking the Giants to win outright, and we rate that as a two-star play.
