MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/24/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Over 8.5 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The pitching matchup in this one pits Joe Ross against Cody Poteet, and our model likes the over.
Ross has been fairly solid this season. After posting a 5.22 SIERA over 2018 and 2019, he's got a 4.32 SIERA this year via a 22.5% strikeout rate that is a career-best clip. But it's not like a 4.32 SIERA is all that amazing, and Ross is allowing 1.74 homers per nine.
Poteet, a rookie, owns a 4.62 SIERA and 10.6% walk rate over his first 27 2/3 MLB innings. He had just a 14.6% strikeout rate in 52 1/3 frames in Triple-A in 2019, and Poteet has permitted 1.63 homers per nine in his brief MLB career. He's up against a Washington Nationals offense that sits ninth in wOBA (.338) over the last 14 days.
Our model projects the Nats to top the Miami Marlins by a score of 4.91-4.33. That's 9.24 total runs, and we have the over hitting at a rate of 57.0%. The public is on the over, as well, with 68% of the money and 63% of the tickets on that side, per oddsFire.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Under 11.0 (-108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
With Dean Kremer and Anthony Kay starting on the mound, we should get a lot of runs. But 11.0 is a big number, and our algorithm leans toward the under.
While the Baltimore Orioles have been really good against lefties, sporting the fourth-best wOBA in the split (.331), Kay is off to a good start in 2021, recording a 4.09 SIERA and 24.5% strikeout rate. The former highly rated prospect may be starting to find his way at the big-league level.
Kremer undoubtedly has a difficult draw versus the Toronto Blue Jays, but he's conceded three runs or fewer in seven of his 11 starts this campaign. And Kremer has been much better away from Camden Yards, giving up a .323 wOBA with a 22.2% strikeout rate on the road, compared to a .409 wOBA and 19.5% strikeout rate at home.
All in all, we're expecting runs as we have the Jays winning 5.57-4.71. But that's just 10.28 total runs, and we have the under hitting 53.0% of the time. That's the way the public is going as 66% of the wagers and 64% of the money is on the under.
