FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 6/26/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
This pitching slate is a tough one. We've got just four games, and I can't back any of the hurlers with much conviction. But we have to pick someone, so here we go.
For me, the top arm comes down to Julio Urias ($9,200 on FanDuel) or Dinelson Lamet ($7,500). Given the salary difference, I'll side with Lamet, who is at home versus the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In 32 innings this year, Lamet owns a 3.71 SIERA, 27.2% strikeout rate and 15.1% swinging-strike rate. Those are excellent numbers, and Arizona is a superb matchup, sitting next to last in wOBA (.288) against right-handers. Here comes the but -- but Lamet's big issue is his workload. He hasn't thrown more than five innings this season, and his single-game high for pitches is 81, which came last time out. That certainly dings his outlook and lowers the chances of him getting the win and quality-start points, but we just don't have many other good options. Arizona's 2.89 implied total is a slate-low clip.
Urias comes into today with a 3.47 SIERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, 12.7% swinging-strike rate and 4.8% walk rate. He's having a really nice campaign. But he has workload issues, as well, going for more than 89 pitches just once in his past six outings, and Urias' matchup with the Chicago Cubs isn't all that great, although the Cubbies do carry the eighth-highest strikeout rate against lefties (25.3%).
I have Frankie Montas ($8,800) a tier below those two, but he needs to be on our radar.
Montas has pitched to a 3.87 SIERA, 24.0% strikeout rate and 12.0% swinging-strike rate in 2021. The edge he has on Urias and Lamet is that he's tossed at least 100 pitches four times this season and has gone past the sixth inning twice in his past three appearances. But he has the worst matchup of the three, taking on a San Francisco Giants offense that is fifth in wOBA versus right-handers (.329), although San Fran holds the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the split (26.0%). Given where he falls in salary, Montas doesn't figure to be too popular.
Stacks to Target
Los Angeles Dodgers
My favorite stack of the night is the Los Angeles Dodgers (5.22 implied total), and if you use Lamet on the bump, you'll have plenty of coin to get the Dodgers' high-salary stars. LA is taking on Alec Mills, who has a 4.65 SIERA and 17.5% strikeout rate since the start of 2020. We want to focus on the Dodgers' lefties as Mills has permitted a .378 wOBA to lefties over his career.
The Dodgers are pretty right-handed these days, but lefties Max Muncy ($3,600), Cody Bellinger ($4,000) and Gavin Lux ($2,700) will likely be in the lineup. Muncy donged last night and carries a .390 wOBA with the platoon advantage in 2021. Left-handers Matt Beaty ($2,100) and Zach McKinstry ($2,200) would be fun low-salary darts if they're in the lineup.
We can use LA's right-handed hitters, too. Mookie Betts ($3,900), Justin Turner ($3,400) and Chris Taylor ($3,100) will probably be in meaty spots in the lineup. Betts has a .365 wOBA in righty-righty matchups and checks in with a 43.3% hard-hit rate and 51.7% fly-ball rate in June.
San Diego Padres
The Padres are at home against Merrill Kelly, and they're going to be a popular stack even though their implied total is just 4.61 (as of Saturday morning). Kelly has had a home-run problem since his return in 2019, and he's allowing 1.27 dingers per nine this year on his way to a 4.23 SIERA and 21.2% strikeout rate. He's also been brutal away from home, conceding a .360 wOBA in his travels.
Our model loves the trio of Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,700), Manny Machado ($4,300) and Jake Cronenworth ($3,300). They make up the slate's top three bats, per our projections. Tatis hit three jacks last night and the masses will likely find room for his lofty salary. That makes me want to be light on Tatis and load up on other Padres. Machado is the slate's number-one stick by our numbers while Cronenworth is the best point-per-dollar hitter among those with a salary of at least $3,000.
Tommy Pham ($3,100), Trent Grisham ($3,000) and Eric Hosmer ($2,700) are economical ways to get a piece of San Diego. Pham appears to have taken the leadoff gig from Grisham -- even against righties -- due to his hot play (.423 wOBA this month) while Grisham was out injured. But Grisham is still a worthwhile option anyway thanks to his .364 wOBA and 42.6% fly-ball rate against right-handers.
Boston Red Sox
The top implied total of the slate belongs to the Boston Red Sox, who boast a 5.38 implied total for their date with Jordan Montgomery. Boston definitely has the bats to knock around Montgomery, but the New York Yankees' lefty is no slouch, pitching to a 3.97 SIERA and 24.0% strikeout rate. I'll likely pass on four-man Boston stacks, but I do want some exposure to them.
Boston righties Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), J.D. Martinez ($4,100), Hunter Renfroe ($2,700) and Enrique Hernandez ($3,300) are the guys I'll hone in on as Montgomery is a much better matchup for right-handed hitters. Bogaerts is mashing lefties this year to the tune of a .412 wOBA while Renfroe has a .425 wOBA and 40.4% hard-hit rate in the split.
