MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/17/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Over 9.5 (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model isn't seeing any stellar betting values across the board tonight as there are no bets to which we assign three stars. But there are some spots where we can pounce. This is one.
The pitching matchup in this clash at Great American Ball Park pits Kyle Hendricks versus Vladimir Gutierrez. We should see a lot of runs.
Hendricks is having the worst season of his career as his 4.58 SIERA is a career-high clip while his 17.4% strikeout rate is his lowest since his rookie campaign. Hendricks has always gotten by without many punchouts, but this year he's permitting 1.56 dingers per nine. His previous career-high was 1.11. We have him projected to allow 1.20 homers tonight in a rough matchup with a Cincinnati Reds offense that's been cooking.
As for Gutierrez, he has a friendly matchup against the depleted Chicago Cubs, but nothing about his first 79 2/3 innings in the bigs makes you think he's very good. He's pitched to a 5.27 SIERA with a lowly 17.1% strikeout rate. He's been woeful at home, surrendering a .408 wOBA and 2.63 jacks per nine in the split.
Our model projects Cincy to win this one by a score of 5.60-5.19. That's 10.69 total runs, and we project the over to cash 57.8% of the time, giving it two stars.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Marlins Moneyline (+110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Marlins +1.5 (-156): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
There's some value today in betting on the Miami Marlins to beat the Atlanta Braves, according to our numbers. A lot of it has to do with Miami giving the ball to Sandy Alcantara.
Alcantara didn't survive Coors two starts ago, but other than that outing, he's been pretty strong in 2021, sporting a 4.10 SIERA along with a 12.2% swinging-strike rate that hints at some positive regression for his 21.6% strikeout rate. He's also been stellar at home, limiting hitters to a .242 wOBA with a 24.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate in Miami.
The Braves are a tough lineup, but Alcantara went six shutout frames in his most recent start against Atlanta. In all, he's faced them three times, going at least six innings in each while not allowing more than three earned runs in any of the outings.
Huascar Ynoa is making his return from the injured list for Atlanta. He absolutely looked the part prior to getting hurt, and his numbers are outstanding, including a 3.44 SIERA and 27.9% strikeout rate. With that said, it's not out of the realm of possibility that he isn't on top of his game in his first start back, and he went just 4 2/3 innings in his last rehab start. We should see a good amount of a Braves 'pen that holds the 13th-worst reliever SIERA (4.03).
Our algorithm gives the Marlins 53.5% win odds, and we think they cover 65.3% of the time as 1.5-run 'dogs. Both bets are two-star plays.
