FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 8/24/21
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salaried Play
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
Vs. Cincinnati Reds
FanDuel Salary: $11,500
Sometimes there is juiciness at the top end of the pitching player pool. Tuesday is one of those times. With a chock full main slate, there some arms we gotta parse through. Seven guys are salaried at $9,000 or above, including quality hurlers like German Marquez, Tyler Mahle, Yu Darvish, Charlie Morton, Jack Flaherty and Julio Urias.
At the top end, I'm rolling with Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Don't get scared off by the Cincinnati Reds. Yes, Cincy is a fantastic lineup -- one that leads baseball both in wOBA and ISO over the last month. But the Reds also carry a 23.9% strikeout rate, and Burnes has been absurd this season, pitching to a 35.1% strikeout rate and 2.57 SIERA. The strikeout ability gives him a sturdy floor as well as a massive ceiling. The Reds' 3.21 implied total is a slate-low clip.
Our projections have Burnes totaling 41.1 FanDuel points, which is nearly seven more than any other pitcher.
Mid-Salaried Play
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros
Vs. Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
If you want to lean in hard on a mid-range play, Luis Garcia of the Houston Astros could end up being quite spicy.
Although the Kansas City Royals don't offer much swing-and-miss upside, they don't pack much pop, either, logging the fifth-worst wOBA (.295) over the last 30 days.
Garcia does provide some major whiffs on his own. He's recorded a 28.9% strikeout rate and 14.0% swinging-strike rate for the season -- numbers which have helped him to a 3.60 SIERA.
We have Garcia projected for 32.9 FanDuel points, the most of anyone salaried below $9,000.
Low-Salaried Play
Eli Morgan, Cleveland Indians
Vs. Texas Rangers
FanDuel Salary: $6,800
In the bargain bin, Eli Morgan could provide a great return on investment at his lowly salary.
While Morgan's season-long numbers are a bit dicey, his recent output is more palatable. Since the All-Star break -- a span of six starts and 33 innings -- Morgan has posted a 3.72 FIP and 23.5% strikeout rate.
What makes him super enticing today is a matchup with the Texas Rangers. Over the last 30 days, Texas is next to last in wOBA (.267).
Morgan's salary gives you a lot of freedom with your offense, and our model projects him for 27.9 FanDuel points.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
