MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/14/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Over 8.5 (-108): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Jesus Luzardo and Erick Fedde are taking the hill tonight for the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals, respectively.
Luzardo is a highly touted prospect who is having an up-and-down campaign. On the bright side, he's getting punchouts with a 22.2% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging-strike rate. On the negative, he's walking 11.2% of hitters and allowing a 40.8% fly-ball rate. The fly-ball rate has led to him being tagged for 2.09 dingers per nine, and right-handed hitters have mashed him for a .393 wOBA.
Fedde is performing much better this year than he has in recent seasons. Across 2019 and 2020, he recorded a 12.4% strikeout rate and 5.59 SIERA as one of the game's worst starters. In 2021, he's got a 21.6% strikeout rate and 4.37 SIERA. He does still, however, give up a lot of jacks (1.46 per nine), and he's unraveled lately, surrendering a combined 13 runs over his last 14 1/3 frames.
We project Washington to win this game 5.72-4.45. That's 10.17 runs, and we forecast the over to win out 64.0% of the time.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Under 9.5 (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Gerrit Cole is expected to make the start tonight for the New York Yankees, and as long as his hamstring doesn't act up again, he should have a long leash with the Pinstripes fighting for a postseason spot.
Our model expects him to do well against the Baltimore Orioles, and with the total at 9.5 runs, we should feel good about the under -- as long as the Yanks' offense doesn't detonate on Alexander Wells.
Wells has a 5.55 SIERA over his first 22 2/3 MLB innings, and he doesn't boast a top-notch minor-league track record. He should be in trouble against the Bronx Bombers. But the Yankees' offense hasn't been that good of late, sitting 17th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.316) with the 3rd-highest strikeout rate in that time (25.9%).
Cole owns a 34.7% strikeout rate and 2.80 SIERA. Facing an O's offense that sports the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the past 30 days (24.5%), Cole should have a lot of success.
We project the Yanks to win 5.42-3.70. That's 9.12 runs, and our numbers give the under a 56.0% chance to hit.
