4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Friday 10/1/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Anthony DeSclafani, P, Giants
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
It's pretty easy to be interested in Anthony DeSclafani at this salary.
DeSclafani has spent most of 2021 being pretty dang good. For the year, he owns a 4.10 SIERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 11.0% swinging-strike rate. He's been excellent at home, holding hitters to a .267 wOBA in the split, and while DeSclafani hasn't been as good in the second half as he was early this year, neither have the San Diego Padres.
It would've been hard to fathom back in May, but the Padres have been bad in the second half, carrying a .310 wOBA since the break, which ranks 23rd.
With Lance Lynn and Clayton Kershaw on the slate, it's not a great night to pinch pennies at pitcher, but if you need a value arm, DeSclafani is our model's best point-per-dollar play.
Max Kepler, OF, Twins
FanDuel Salary: $2,600
Max Kepler has had an underwhelming year, but there's a lot to like about him tonight.
Kepler and the Minnesota Twins are on the stacking radar versus Jon Heasley, a righty who has all of 9 1/3 innings of MLB experience. In that brief sample, he's got a mere 13.5% strikeout rate -- although he posted some nice minor-league numbers this year in Double-A.
Against righties this year, Kepler has a .341 wOBA, 39.6% hard-hit rate and 44.6% fly-ball rate. Despite that batted-ball profile, his BABIP is a lowly .242 in the split. His overall wOBA is .313, but his expected wOBA is .347. In short, Kepler has been unlucky.
Kepler hit fifth the last time Minnesota saw a righty, and he's a low-salary way to get a piece of the Twins' 4.87 implied total.
Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies
FanDuel Salary: $2,700
Sam Hilliard is someone we don't mind using when the Colorado Rockies are at home against a righty. Even though the Rox are not at Coors for this one, we can still target Hilliard versus Humberto Castellanos.
Castellanos has given up a .342 wOBA and 1.82 homers per nine to lefties in his short MLB career, and they're striking out only 14.6% of the time against him.
With the platoon advantage, Hilliard has ripped eight homers in 170 plate appearances this season. We project him as the seventh-best point-per-dollar bat, and his projection of 0.35 homers is sixth among all hitters.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Jays
FanDuel Salary: $2,300
The Toronto Blue Jays boast a slate-leading 6.28 implied total and will be a chalky stack.
They're taking on Thomas Eshelman, a righty who just isn't good. Across 95 2/3 career MLB innings, he's struggled to a 5.70 SIERA and 11.6% strikeout rate. He's been even worse this season, with a 6.07 SIERA and 9.6% strikeout rate -- yes, 9.6% -- in 25 frames.
Lefties have a .352 wOBA and 9.6% strikeout rate against Eshelman for his career and have popped 2.09 dingers per nine innings.
While Corey Dickerson hasn't been all that good this season, he's an economical piece to add to Toronto stacks and will hit from the left side.
