MLB Betting Guide: Opening Day
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Under 10.5 (-110): 4-Star Rating out of 5
While it's not fun to back the under for a Wrigley game in which the wind is forecasted to be blowing out to right at 15 MPH, that's what the numbers point to for Thursday's opener.
Corbin Burnes is a huge part of that. The Milwaukee Brewers' starter is one of the game's best. He finished with a comically low 2.61 SIERA last season and has a cumulative 2.92 SIERA over 275 2/3 innings since the start of 2019 -- with a 34.6% strikeout rate, 16.2% swinging-strike rate and 6.9% walk rate in that span.
Burnes should be too much for the lineup of the Chicago Cubs, an offense that FanGraphs projects to be the 12th-worst in 2022. Chicago ended 2021 with MLB's highest strikeout rate (26.7%). In three starts against the Cubbies last year, Burnes had two scoreless outings and surrendered three total earned runs while punching out 36 in 20 innings. My gosh.
Despite the favorable hitting conditions, we have Chicago plating only 3.53 runs.
For this game to hit the under, we need Burnes to deal, because there's a good chance Milwaukee's offense does some damage against Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks had the worst campaign of his career across the board last season. His 4.70 SIERA, 16.7% strikeout rate and 1.54 dingers per nine were all career-worst marks. He ended the year on a rough note, permitting 31 earned runs over his last 36 1/3 innings. He also struggled mightily at Wrigley, pitching to a 5.24 ERA while surrendering 1.85 homers per nine and a .354 wOBA in the split.
Like I said -- we need Burnes to be on it.
Our projections have Milwaukee scoring 5.03 runs. That's 8.56 runs in all, and we have the under hitting a whopping 67.4% of the time. It's the top-rated bet of Opening Day by our numbers.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Moneyline (-112): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Going by FanGraphs' projected win totals, not much separates these AL Central rivals this season, but the Cleveland Guardians have a huge advantage on the mound in the opener as the pitching matchup pits Shane Bieber against Zack Greinke.
Bieber has been one of the elite pitchers in baseball the past few seasons and is reportedly fully recovered from the shoulder injury that sidelined him for a huge chunk of 2021. Over 174 innings since the start of 2020, Bieber owns a 2.90 SIERA, 36.5% strikeout rate, 16.6% swinging-strike rate, and a 7.7% walk rate.
The dude has been fantastic, and he should be able to handle a Kansas City Royals lineup that FanGraphs projects as the sixth-worst offense this season for as long as he's in the game, which might not be all that long if he's capped at 65 pitches as reports suggest.
In 2021, Greinke appeared to be heading toward the end of his superb career. He finished with a career-worst 4.54 SIERA and a 17.2% strikeout rate, the latter of which was his lowest clip since his first two seasons (2004 and 2005). He gave up 1.58 jacks per nine, the most since his rookie year.
Cleveland's offense isn't too potent, but they should make some noise against Greinke.
Our algorithm has Cleveland winning by a score of 5.41-4.08, and we think the Guardians should be a bigger favorite than what they are. The -112 moneyline implies win odds of 52.8%, but we project Cleveland to win 62.0% of the time.
