MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/19/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
Rockies Moneyline (+120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Well, we got a pitcher's duel last night at Coors -- just like everyone expected in a game with an 11.0-run total. The Colorado Rockies won it to continue their hot start, moving them to 7-3 on the campaign.
We project them to keep rolling tonight.
Colorado is sending Kyle Freeland to the bump while the Philadelphia Phillies counter with Kyle Gibson.
Freeland posted a respectable 4.44 SIERA last year, and he tamed Coors a bit with a 4.14 xFIP at home. He does it by keeping the ball on the ground, inducing a 48.7% ground-ball rate since the start of 2020. While the Phils have some high-octane bats, two of the most potent -- Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber -- are left-handed. In lefty-lefty matchups in 2021, Freeland permitted just a 22.5% hard-hit rate and 26.2% fly-ball rate.
Gibson is off to a scorching start so far this year, fanning 16 in 11 2/3 innings. He also does a good job preventing fly-balls, but he will have his work cut out for him against a Rockies lineup that leads baseball in wOBA (.358) in the early going. Colorado also boasts the ninth-lowest strikeout rate (20.6%).
Our model gives the underdog Rockies win odds of 51.4%, and we rate taking Colorado on the moneyline as a two-star bet.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Over 8.5 (-104): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
This 8.5-run over/under isn't high enough, according to our numbers.
The pitching matchup pits Chris Archer against Carlos Hernandez, and both guys have plenty of warts in their profiles.
Archer has always been able to miss bats, but he's allowing more walks and hard contact with each passing year. Since 2019, he's recorded a 10.1% walk rate while giving up a 39.3% hard-hit rate and 42.0% fly-ball rate across 143 frames. Unsurprisingly, he's surrendered an ugly 1.76 dingers per nine in that span.
Hernandez has bounced between the rotation and bullpen in his MLB career. Usually, being a reliever boosts a pitcher's strikeout rate, but Hernandez's strikeout rate is still only 19.8% in 104 2/3 career innings. He's got an 11.0% walk rate for his career and was tagged for four earned runs in 4 1/3 frames in his 2022 season debut.
Neither of these offenses are elite, but our algorithm expects them to produce today. We have Minnesota winning 5.02-4.91. That's 9.93 total runs, and we give the over a 62.1% chance to cash and rate it as a three-star wager.
