MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/27/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies -1.5 (-115): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Philadelphia Phillies have a huge edge on the mound today against the Colorado Rockies. Philly is giving the ball to Ranger Suarez, and they'll be facing Colorado rookie Ryan Feltner.
Feltner has thrown just 6 1/3 MLB innings in his career, and this will be his 2022 debut after he opened the season with 20 1/3 frames in Triple-A. Feltner's minor-league numbers are decent enough, but in 72 2/3 innings in Double-A in 2021, he allowed a 41.5% fly-ball rate while amassing just an 11.5% swinging-strike rate.
Facing a pretty stout Phillies lineup in Citizens Bank Park is a tall task for Feltner. And once he's out of the game, he'll turn over the keys to a Colorado 'pen that owns the second-worst bullpen strikeout rate (19.6%) and the second-worst SIERA (3.89).
Suarez, on the other hand, spun a 3.51 SIERA last year across 106 innings, racking up an impressive 25.6% strikeout rate in the process. While he's off to a slow start this campaign, Suarez can thrive against a Rockies offense that has plated three or fewer runs in four of their last five road games.
We project the Phillies to win by a score of 5.48-3.72. The Phillies are at -230 on the moneyline, which mostly falls in line with our model's -239 moneyline, so the better bang for your buck is on Philadelphia to cover as 1.5-run favorites. We think the Phillies cover the runline 53.9% of the time.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves
Braves Moneyline (-205): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Braves -1.5 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This is another matchup in which one side -- this time it's the Atlanta Braves -- has a huge advantage on the bump. Charlie Morton is going for Atlanta, and Mark Leiter Jr. gets the ball for the Chicago Cubs.
Morton is off to a bumpy start, but he has a long track record of success. He finished 2021 with a 3.57 SIERA, and he hasn't had a SIERA north of 4.00 since 2012. He's good, and his slow start likely has a lot to do with back-to-back tough matchups versus the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. He has a much softer matchup in this one against a Chicago offense that projects to be a league-average unit the rest of the way, per FanGraphs.
Leiter will have his work cut out for him versus the Braves, an offense that the aforementioned rest-of-season projections peg as the second-best. Leiter has shown nothing in his career to make us think he can mow through the Braves. Over 121 1/3 career innings, the righty sports a 20.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% swinging-strike rate while permitting 2.00 homers per nine.
The Braves are big favorites, listed at -200 on the moneyline, but we think the moneyline should be -298 as we give Atlanta win odds of 74.9%. Taking Atlanta on the moneyline rates as a three-star play. You can also opt to take the Braves on the runline. We have them covering 58.5% of the time and assign that bet a two-star rating.
