MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Friday 5/13/22

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas May 13th, 2022
Christian Walker is making great contact and has a sweet matchup against Drew Smyly. Which other value bats make sense on Friday?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.

Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.

Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?

Eduardo Rodriguez, P, Tigers ($7,200)

For just $7,200, Eduardo Rodriguez offers us a chance to get exposure to a good pitcher in a really nice matchup at a pitcher-friendly park.

Sign me up.

Rodriguez finished a breakout 2021 with a sparkling 3.65 SIERA and 27.4% strikeout rate. He's got similar numbers so far in 2022 -- 3.86 SIERA and 23.0% strikeout rate -- and he's coming off his best outing of the campaign, fanning eight and allowing one earned run in 6 2/3 frames against the Houston Astros.

He has a much easier matchup today versus the Baltimore Orioles. The O's are 22nd in wOBA (.296) with the 8th-highest strikeout rate (24.1%). Their implied total tonight is just 3.74 runs.

Our projections peg Rodriguez to score 30.7 FanDuel points. He rates as the best point-per-dollar arm by a wide margin, and his salary is handy on a Coors slate.

Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies ($2,600)

Speaking of Coors, Sam Hilliard is a low-salary way to get a piece of the Colorado Rockies' slate-leading 5.32 implied total.

The Rox are facing Zack Greinke. The veteran right-hander appears to be at the end of the road for his career as he's punched out only 7.5% of hitters through his initial 33 2/3 innings in 2022. He's also allowing a 40.7% fly-ball rate. So, yeah, he might have some trouble tonight in Denver.

At home against righties for his career, Hilliard sports a .347 wOBA. His biggest issue is strikeouts, but that's not as much of a concern with Greinke on the bump.

We project Hilliard for 11.5 FanDuel points, and he has plenty of upside in this spot.

Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks ($2,600)

Going by his .187 average, Christian Walker is off to a miserable start. But he's actually making great contact and is a superb value tonight against Drew Smyly.

While Walker's wOBA is .313, his expected wOBA is .394. His average exit velocity is up 3.0 MPH from last year, and he's just been really unlucky, holding a lowly .184 BABIP. The bad luck has kept his salary low, and he could pop against Smyly.

The southpaw's 17.3% strikeout rate so far this year would be a career-low mark by a huge margin, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are a sneaky-good stack as they boast a 4.43 implied total -- the fifth-highest mark on the slate.

Walker projects for 12.0 FanDuel points and is a sweet point-per-dollar play.