3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/8/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
J.D. Martinez To Hit a Home Run (+320)
We're looking at one of the best hitters in the league for a home run prop tonight.
That hitter would be J.D. Martinez of the Boston Red Sox, a team that comes in with a solid 4.66 implied run total tonight. The Sox are taking on Reid Detmers, a pitcher giving up too many home runs this season. Detmers is allowing a 4.74 xFIP, .371 SLG, 1.06 HR/9, a low 18.7% strikeout rate, and a 45.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. While Detmers' season is highlighted by a no-hitter versus the Tampa Bay Rays, in reality, he's not that good and is home-run prone.
Martinez has an active five-game hitting streak and has hits in 13 of his last 15 games, with seven multi-hit games in that span. But he has no home runs in this stretch. He's locked in at the plate -- just not seeing the ball go over the fence. For the season, he comes in with a 212 wRC+, .152 ISO,.469 wOBA and 29.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers.
His 29.6% fly-ball rate is a bit low considering last season he was up at 45.3% in the split and he was at a 38.1% fly-ball rate against southpaws in 2020. He's due for a bit of positive regression for fly balls, and Detmers is the perfect pitcher to help get that done.
Joc Pederson To Record an RBI (+105)
The San Francisco Giants have a juicy matchup and plenty of potential on offense.
The Giants have a 5.27 implied run total and are set to take on Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies. The short answer is that Senzatela is a bad pitcher, and looking to opposing offenses facing him is a profitable move. The long answer is that he is allowing a .397 wOBA, .481 SLG, 5.09 xFIP, and has an insanely low 8.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters. He is getting knocked around each and every time he's on the mound, and it's a spot to target tonight.
We turn to Joc Pederson, who comes in with a 168 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .328 ISO, 39.6% fly-ball rate, and 47.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Pederson normally hits in the middle of the lineup for the Giants, putting him in a great spot to cash in on this RBI prop.
Given how favorable the matchup is, adding Pederson 2+ RBI (+370) is also worth considering.
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Aaron Nola is one of the best pitchers in the league, and we're looking at his strikeout prop tonight.
Right from the jump, I'll say this -- the -140 juice can be a bit much for some people. While I don't love it, I love the matchup and believe in Nola's potential.
Nola comes in with a 30.2% strikeout rate, which is the highest of any pitcher in action today and the sixth-highest in the entire league this season. He has 7 strikeouts or more in six of his last eight starts, with two of those starts being up at 10 and 9 strikeouts.
Nola is also carrying an 11.1% swinging-strike rate this season, which is lower than his 12.8% rate from last year and 13.4% rate from 2020. There's room for him to get a bit more swinging strikes, which can always help his strikeout ceiling.
He's going up against the Milwaukee Brewers, who own a 23.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the eighth-highest mark in the league.
This is absolutely a plus matchup for an elite pitcher, and given his potential upside, his alternate lines of Nola 8+ Strikeouts (+140) and Nola 9+ Strikeouts (+260) are reasonable to add.
