FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 4/11/23

A pair of aces headline tonight's pitching slate, and you won't have to look very long to figure out who I'm talking about. On the hitting side, Coors Field will once again be a factor, but we do have quite a few appealing alternatives if we want to branch out for stacks.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Take a quick glance at the top of tonight's list of pitchers, and two names immediately stand out: Shohei Ohtani ($10,800) and Jacob deGrom ($10,600). Needless to say, these are the two leading men of the slate.

Beginning with deGrom, the oft-injured right-hander didn't exactly alleviate any concerns with a shaky Rangers debut on Opening Day. But any doubts quickly washed away following last week's 11-strikeout, 58-point performance against the Orioles. He also logged 92 pitches, so his workload also shouldn't be a concern moving forward.

While it will take some time to rectify his ERA, the underlying numbers look like what we've seen from deGrom over the last few seasons, as he boasts a 1.74 SIERA, 46.2% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate so far.

He'll look to build on that last start tonight against the Royals, a team whose active roster owns the third-worst wRC+ versus righties (84) going back to last season. Kansas City also has the slate's second-lowest implied team total (3.14). Everything points to deGrom producing another dominant performance.

Meanwhile, Ohtani hasn't wasted any time reminding everyone that he's an annual MVP candidate, as he's doing his usual thing at the plate (1.030 OPS) while simultaneously allowing just one earned run over his first two starts as a pitcher. Ridiculous.

Ohtani hasn't been flawless on the mound due to a shaky 14.6% walk rate, but he's mowed down opposing batters with a 37.5% strikeout rate, helping him to 52 and 49 FanDuel points through two outungs. The Angels haven't been afraid to fully unleash their two-way star, either, considering he's recorded 93 and 111 pitches in his first two outings.

Tuesday's matchup also checks out against a lower-tier Washington team with a slate-low implied team total (2.99). The troublesome walks arguably place Ohtani behind deGrom, but there's little question that these are the night's top arms by a sizable margin. If you're only making a handful of lineups, you probably don't need to go past these two guys.

The best of the rest is arguably comprised of Alek Manoah ($9,900), Corbin Burnes ($9,700), Pablo Lopez ($9,600), and Kyle Wright ($9,100), and while all possess notable positives, it's also easier to poke holes in their respective situations.

For Manoah, his appeal is all about the matchup against the Tigers, who are already looking like one of the very best matchups for right-handers again this season. Dating back to the start of 2022, Detroit's active roster is last in wRC+ (77) and strikeout rate (25.7%) in the split.

However, Manoah's put up a lackluster 17.0% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate through two starts, and he wasn't a huge strikeout pitcher last year (22.9% strikeout rate). The good news is his swinging-strike rate (12.0%) is encouraging, so those punchouts should still be in play against such a weak opponent. Manoah's definitely on the tournament radar.

Burnes is a tougher sell because simply hasn't had it to begin 2023. Through two starts, he's posted an ugly 5.23 SIERA, 13.0% strikeout rate, and 10.9% walk rate, and his 6.1% swinging-strike rate suggests the lack of punchouts is deserved. Given his recent struggles, he shouldn't see a high roster percentage against the Diamondbacks, so he's worth considering as a contrarian play in case the guy with the career 31.8% strikeout rate shows up.

Unlike Manoah and Burnes, Lopez has been outstanding thus far, putting up a 2.96 SIERA and 36.4% strikeout rate in his first two 2023 starts. All those Ks are supported by a 16.8% swinging-strike rate, a mark that well exceeds his career average (11.7%).

Considering Lopez only achieved a 23.6% strikeout rate in 2022, we probably shouldn't get overly excited just yet, but this isn't a bad spot to see if he keeps things up against a White Sox team that's average at best against righties. Note that Lopez posted a 2.87 xFIP and 29.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed batters last season, so he's even more intriguing if Chicago has a righty-heavy lineup.

Wright is coming off the injured list, but he did go 84 pitches in his last rehab start, so he should have a fairly normal pitch count. However, he wasn't at his best in that start, and it's always difficult to trust players in their first start off an injury.

His salary does make him a value relative to the top arms, though, and this is a fantastic matchup against a Reds team with a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitting going back to last year. Wright is coming off a breakout campaign in 2022 where he produced a 3.48 SIERA, 23.6% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate over 30 starts.

Hitting Breakdown

The St. Louis Cardinals have the highest implied team total (6.58) again tonight, this time facing Kyle Freeland at Coors Field. St. Louis is a terrifying matchup for left-handed pitchers as they own an absurd 142 wRC+ in the split from 2022 onward.

Freeland hasn't given up any runs in his two 2023 starts, but he has a lucky .189 BABIP to thank for that; a 5.69 SIERA and 13.0% strikeout tell the real story. The southpaw produced an unimposing 16.6% strikeout rate versus righties last year, and he may see an entire lineup full of them this evening. While Paul Goldschmidt ($4,200) and Nolan Arenado ($4,000) are great and all, there's plenty of value up and down this lineup if you need to make room for deGrom or Ohtani.

Opposite the Cardinals, the Colorado Rockies have the next-best implied team total (5.42), though their matchup isn't quite as inviting against Miles Mikolas. While Mikolas hasn't gotten good results in some tough early-season matchups, he's posted a 3.46 SIERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 2.0% walk rate, so he figures to be just fine. Even so, he put up only a 19.0% strikeout rate in 2022, so the Rockies should be able to put some balls in play, opening the door for a big night.

However, we hardly need to stick with Coors tonight as the Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, and Chicago Cubs all have implied team totals surpassing five runs.

The Blue Jays get right-hander Matt Manning, who logged an underwhelming 4.45 SIERA and 18.3% strikeout rate over a dozen starts last season. He's attackable on both sides of the plate, as he's put up a career 4.93 xFIP against lefties and a 4.71 xFIP versus righties. He gets fewer strikeouts against lefty sticks (14.6%) and allows more fly balls in same-sided matchups (39.2%), so we really can't go wrong. While most of the top bats will be tough to fit in, Daulton Varsho ($3,400) has a mid-range salary out of the cleanup spot, and the punt salaries at the bottom of the lineup could come in handy.

The Angels are up against the launching pad known as Josiah Gray, so their appeal is obvious. The right-hander has given up 2.34 home runs per 9 innings over 230 1/3 career frames. Mike Trout ($4,500), Taylor Ward ($3,700), and Hunter Renfroe ($2,800) are the prime candidates to take advantage. Gray's been absolutely pummeled by left-handed batters, so it's a shame we can't roster Ohtani the hitter, but Jake Lamb ($2,500) gets bumped up as a value play.

If we narrow things down to just his innings as a starter last year, Luis Cessa posted a 4.41 xFIP and 17.1% strikeout rate over 10 starts. If we look at his splits, he had an ugly 14.0% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate against lefties, but he coughed up two dingers per nine innings in same-sided matchups, too. Ronald Acuna ($4,200), Matt Olson ($4,300), and Austin Riley ($3,700) are the big Braves bats to build around when possible, but the rest of the lineup comes in on the cheap, including Sean Murphy ($2,400), who should bat fourth or fifth.

Chicago has some hitter-friendly weather at Wrigley Field, with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center and temperatures in the 70s. In 2022, right-hander Chris Flexen had a 16.1% strikeout rate and allowed a whopping 46.0% fly-ball rate, so this is the perfect matchup for the Cubbies to exploit these conditions. It also doesn't hurt that this is a stack that won't require much cap space, as every batter is at a salary of $3,400 or lower.

One other team to have in your player pool could be the Texas Rangers. Jordan Lyles still looks like someone we want to attack in 2023, and left-handed batters had his number last season, knocking out 1.75 home runs per 9 innings. Corey Seager ($3,000) and Nathaniel Lowe ($3,200) are solid values at their respective salaries.