MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/1/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-106)
The Toronto Blue Jays will turn to their ace, Kevin Gausman, as they close out their series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Gausman has shown to be elite over the last few seasons, and in 2023, things are no different. He comes in with a 31.9% strikeout rate. 5.7% walk rate, 2.83 xFIP, 13.4% swinging-strike rate, and 29.5% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). That's solid top to bottom, and it has allowed Gausman to reach over this 7.5 mark in six of his 11 starts this season.
He's been over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts and is truly one of the only pitchers the Blue Jays trust to go deep into games.
All of that should be on full display today against the Brewers, who come in with a 23.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-highest in the league. With the Blue Jays' bullpen seeing a heavy workload over the last two games, Gausman should have a long leash, giving him a chance to rack up the strikeouts in a favorable matchup.
Ketel Marte To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)
With a 5.56 implied run total, the Arizona Diamondbacks top the slate and are primed for some offense today.
When an offense is expected to score that many runs, we should be targeting their player props. If a team is going to be scoring runs, they are going to be getting runners on base. It's as simple as that.
This brings us to Ketel Marte, who's having a solid bounce-back season this year.
He comes in with a 107 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .185 ISO, 16.8% strikeout rate, .296 BABIP, and 36.6% hard-contact rate. Marte isn't wasting any chances at the plate with a solid strikeout rate and is putting the ball in play at a good clip. This puts him in a favorable spot against Chase Anderson.
Anderson hasn't pitched more than 50.0 innings in a season since 2019, when he allowed a .343 SLG, 5.19 xFIP, 21.9% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate, and 48.0% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. I'll take Marte in this matchup 10 times out of 10.
