4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 4/28/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. I'm not going to include any of the games starting at 6:10 Eastern just because you'll be forced to stack there regardless if you're playing the early slate. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Seattle Mariners
This is a stack I really wanted to use yesterday but largely refrained from doing so because Yovani Gallardo has been pretty decent this year. I don't have those same reservations with Ross Detwiler.
In 12.2 innings this year, Detwiler has walked seven batters and struck out five. This is coupled with five home runs allowed, giving him a FIP of 9.46 and an xFIP of 7.01. He has only induced ground balls 30.9 percent of the time, which is a huge deviation from his career mark of 46.0. If that number doesn't come down, he is going to get pounded tonight.
Entering play yesterday, the Mariners were fourth in the league in fly-ball percentage. Their on-base percentage against left-handers is only .289, but their slugging percentage is at .410. Nelson Cruz has hit four homers off of lefties, putting him ahead of 14 teams in that category. If you add in Austin Jackson, the duo would be tied for eighth among teams in bombs off of lefties. So, yeah, you could say Detwiler will be in trouble if he continues his recent fly-ball tendencies.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Originally, Kyle Kendrick was scheduled to start yesterday. Sunday's rain messed that up, but today is a new day. Let the sweetness unleash at Chase Field.
Even with this plus match-up and park factor, the Diamondbacks only have one player that will cost you more than $4,600 on DraftKings. If they keep the same lineup construction they have had recently against right-handers (with David Peralta batting clean-up), you could stack their top four hitters for only $16,000. That's crazy sweet for the team with the better match-up in a game with an over/under of nine.
Detroit Tigers
I have recommended stacking against Mike Pelfrey twice this year. In those two games, he has allowed one earned run over 12 innings. This included his first Major League win since 2013 his last time out. This is all very encouraging for tonight's game.
As much as the Minnesotan in me would love for this to be legit, it's probs not. Pelfrey has a 5.41 FIP and a 4.98 xFIP to go with his 2.65 ERA. Opponents have a .250 BABIP against him, and he has stranded 90.1 percent of runners. He meets and exceeds every standard measurable for regression imaginable. And he's facing the Tigers tonight, which could get messy.
The problem with this stack is the pricing. Six Tigers hitters are priced at $4,500 or higher on DraftKings with Miguel Cabrera leading the way at $5,400. You're going to need to find lower-priced options, whether in this lineup, elsewhere or in your pitching, to make this stack work.
Even with that in mind, that doesn't mean you should roster a cheaper guy like Jose Iglesias if he's not in the top part of the order. Yeah, he's cheaper, but if he's hitting ninth, he's going to have fewer chances to rack up points. When you're in a 50/50, that's a significant enough difference for me not to pull the trigger on a guy. Now, if they plug either him or Anthony Gose in the top two in the order, that's a different story. Then you almost have to roster them. But I'd avoid bottom-of-the-order guys even in a sweet match-up like this.
St. Louis Cardinals
Today will mark the big-league debut of Severino Gonzalez for the Phillies. This is exciting because he's only 22 years old and the Phillies are starved for talent. At the same time, Gonzalez could prove to be a quality stacking option because of his lack of credentials.
Gonzalez spent all of 2014 down in Double-A. There, he had a 4.59 ERA and a 4.60 FIP. He only made three starts at Triple-A this year prior to his promotion. He had a 3.57 ERA and 4.27 FIP there, coupled with 4.58 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA was largely inflated by one game in which he allowed five earned runs in five innings, but the high FIP seems legit. That would make me comfortable with a stack against him for today.
After going 2-4 last night with a double, Matt Carpenter is now slashing .373/.427/.640 in 82 plate appearances. This includes his 11 doubles and 3 home runs on the season. All of this has combined to make numberFire's John Stolnis call him the best lead-off hitter in the league and a potential MVP candidate. His pricing on DraftKings has gotten semi-bonkers, but I think I can stomach paying that in a match-up with as much juice potential as this one.
