NASCAR Betting Guide: Food City Dirt Race

There are a lot of reasons to take things slow when betting on NASCAR.

Recently, we've had to do that because there simply wasn't much value on the board. A non-bet is better than a bad bet, and if the bookmakers are on it that week, we should be happy to sit things out.

This week is different. My simulations for the Food City Dirt Race are showing good value at FanDuel Sportsbook, especially in the outright market.

I just don't know if I want to take it.

The reasoning here is that practice is radically different for the Bristol dirt race than it is for any other. Not only do we get two full sessions, but this track is the most unique on the entire circuit. Thus, the current-form input of the model is less predictive than it is elsewhere.

As such, I'm good sitting things out for now and waiting until we get that practice data to add to my betslip -- unless I feel very good about the value.

That's the case with two bets for now. So let's dive in on those -- based on the NASCAR odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- and then we can circle back post-practice once we can have more confidence.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 10 (+380)

(UPDATE: Gibbs has since lengthened to +410 to finish top 10. My model has him at 24.6% to finish top 10, up from 19.6% implied. It's disappointing to have that slip from pre-practice, but this is still a value by my numbers and one I still believe in.)

If you read this piece regularly, you know Ty Gibbs has been a fixture. It has worked out recently as he's riding a string of three straight top-10 finishes.

I'm showing value once again and willing to trust it.

My model has Gibbs' top-10 odds at 29.8%, up from 20.8% implied. It's in large part due to his equipment at Joe Gibbs Racing, but Gibbs' talent weighs in, too.

Gibbs has no experience on dirt in NASCAR's upper three series, but he did run dirt in ARCA before that. He finished runner-up in both dirt races there in 2021 (his age-18 season). That was worse than expectation that year -- he won half the races he ran -- but he at least has dirt experience in a stock car.

Bristol has raced like a slick paved track its first two years, something you could also say about Richmond, the site of last week's race. Gibbs finished 9th there and had a 13th-place average running position. He also won at Richmond last year in the Xfinity Series. There's enough here for me to lock in Gibbs even before practice.

Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+1000)

(UPDATE: Jones has since shortened to +850 to finish top 10. My model has him at 15.5% post-heat races, which is higher than his new implied odds of 10.5%. So even if you didn't get in on Jones at +1000, there's still value to be had.)

Erik Jones isn't one of the Cup regulars with a rich dirt-racing background. But he was top-10 here in 2021, and he's being treated as a longshot to do it again this year.

That top-10 run isn't Jones' lone plus on a dirt track. Back in 2014 -- Jones' age-18 season -- he beat both Kyle Larson and Bubba Wallace in his Truck Series heat race at Eldora in the Mudsummer Classic. That allowed Jones to start on the pole. He led 24 laps but had issues and finished poorly. He followed that up with a fourth-place finish in Eldora the next year.

Jones won in Darlington last year, another track with slick tendencies, and it has traditionally been his best track. Things haven't gone well for Legacy MC to open the year, but that's fully baked into this number.

My model puts Jones' top-10 odds at 10.0%. That's only a hair above his implied odds at 9.1%. But I'm higher on Jones than the model, so I'll take the slim value, and I do feel better about this bet than the Gibbs one, personally.

Post-Heat Race Addition: Christopher Bell to Win (+650)

Given the tax you have to pay to bet drivers with dirt backgrounds, I'm almost shocked by this. But after Saturday night's heat races, I've got value on Christopher Bell to win at +650.

Although Bell finished third in his heat, he had the best five-lap average of any driver in his heat and the second-best single lap of any driver. He was running down Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick but just ran out of time.

Bell will start the race in fourth, meaning he has track position. Bell wrecked with Larson in the first Bristol dirt race, but last year, he had a sixth-place average running position.

After the heat races, my model has Larson as the favorite at 17.3% to win. But Bell's second at 14.3%, above his implied odds of 13.3%. You can find him at +700 if you shop around, but even if +650 is the best number you can get, Bell's my favorite outright of the weekend.