NASCAR Betting Guide: Ally 400
From a modeling perspective, Nashville Superspeedway is a bit of an odd duck.
It's an intermediate track, 1.33 miles in length. It's one of just three tracks on the circuit with a length between 1.0 and 1.5 miles.
It has flat banking and low tire wear, making it very different from Darlington, one of those other intermediate tracks.
And finally, Nashville is concrete, joining Bristol and Dover as the only tracks to run that surface. Both of those tracks are shorter than Nashville, though, and both feature much steeper banking.
As a result, there's no direct comp for this place. We can get an idea of who will be fast by looking at tracks that check similar boxes, but just in general, we have to keep in mind that there's an element of the unknown at play.
This leads to a pretty light betting card for me to open the week. We'll get a full practice session on Friday, and the data there should be helpful, so I'm open to circling back if more value opens up. But let's dig in now to the one bet I like most prior to practice based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR odds for Nashville.
Ryan Blaney to Win (+900)
(UPDATE: Blaney has since lengthened to +1800 to win after qualifying 13th. Blaney's speed in practice was simply fine, as well, so he hasn't popped this weekend. My model has Blaney's win odds now at 6.3% versus 5.3% implied, so he's not a bad bet at +1800. It's just a bummer to have gotten him at a bad number earlier.)
As always, be sure to shop around before betting Ryan Blaney to win. You can still get him at +1000 at some spots, and that obviously increases the margin for error here.
Even at +900, Blaney grades out as a quality bet by my model.
Blaney enters the week with 11.0% win odds for me, up from 10.0% implied at +900 (or 9.1% at +1000). This may feel odd given he has just one win since the start of last year, but he has been fast at the somewhat-relevant tracks.
First, Blaney has traditionally been great at Bristol, one of the other concrete tracks. That success hadn't previously carried over to Dover, but that changed this year. He turned a third-place average running position into a podium finish, his first career top-five there.
The Dover success has carried into other races using the same rules package in place this week. He won Charlotte and had a third-place average running position at Gateway, another flat, intermediate track. Blaney has three top-three average running positions in this package on the season. That's more than any other driver in the series, and only William Byron and Ross Chastain have managed to do it even twice.
The Fords have shown dramatic improvement the past two races in this rules package, and Blaney has been the guy leading the charge. So if I wanted to place just a single bet before practice, it'd be on Blaney to notch his second win of the year.
Post-Qualifying Addition: Denny Hamlin to Win (+750)
I had value on Denny Hamlin to win at +750 entering the weekend. He then went out, had respectable speed in practice, and qualified eighth. I understand why he hasn't shortened from +750 (and he's even longer at some books, so as always, be sure to shop around), but I'm happy to get him still there.
Hamlin was my model's favorite to win earlier thanks to stout runs on relevant tracks. He had a top-five average running position in Gateway, Kansas, and Dover, and he led 20 laps in Charlotte before getting wrecked by Chase Elliott. In this rules package -- on tracks of all types -- Hamlin has run well.
Hamlin also had arguably the best car in Nashville last year. He led 114 laps and had a fourth-place average running position but finished sixth.
He's going to face a strong fight from his 23XI cars this weekend, but I've got Hamlin's win odds at 13.6%, up from 11.8% implied. That's enough gap for me to plug him in.
Post-Qualifying Addition: Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+230)
If you shop around, you can get both RFK cars (Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher) at +230 or longer for a top 10. I'm showing value on both at that number. Buescher's +195 at FanDuel, though (33.9% implied versus 34.2% for me), making Keselowski the better value at this specific book.
My model puts Keselowski's top-10 odds at 33.9%, up from 30.3% implied at this number. He's there primarily due to current form. He had great speed in both Charlotte and Dover, and he turned that Dover speed into an eighth-place finish.
Keselowski was also decent in practice. He ranked 10th in 10-lap average; Keselowski and Buescher are the only drivers to rank in the top 10 there with top-10 odds longer than -140.
If you want a longshot, I do actually show value on Buescher to win at +6500, so you could swing for the fences there. RFK cars have shown upside on concrete both last year and this year, so that's not an outlandish thought. But for me, based on FanDuel's odds, specifically, the Keselowski top-10 market is the best value on the board.
